ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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With all of this bearish talk here, you'd think no one has seen a correction before.

Although no one knows the future, and it is presumptuous to think that we do, we do have indicators, some of which work more often than they don't.

What do some of mine say?

TRIN is oversold (3 and 5 day ma).

Equity and index p/c ratio is neutral (neither overbought nor oversold)

VIX has hit a new 50 day high and is significantly above its 10 day moving average. Again, bullish.

Low of NYSE TICK (low is below -1100) is, yes, bullish, on a short term basis (3 days).

I have no positions in ES, as I use it only as a daytrading option, but I'd get ready for a sharp snap back in the next couple of days. It may follow a sharp drop, but I'd look to get long, as the shorts get bent over by the generals.

If ES drops as sharply as some here say it will, I'll be buying, not selling, good quality stocks (A or A+ S&P), and selling premium on ES options.

Good luck to all.
 
Considering the extended run up, a normal correction at this point in the game warrants some significant downside. I like Spectre's theory on the Fed needing a rationalization to ease come the election year. Take the markets apart for an extended duration and then turn it around with some Fed easing. Seems like something they'd do.
 
instis will put orderflow below the ma, to subdue the market to lead to a technical gap down. july wealth taxation hearings will weigh down the market.
 
Quote from mbusch:

B1S2, please define what you mean by "short term" in the context of the above. Weeks? Months?
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At present , I mean days. It's impossible to know where a trend will stop when you are at the beginning of the trend. Short term trend changes can change into long term trend changes etc. ( Trend changes can be detected around the time they are happening but never far in advance.)
 
Quote from elovemer:

B1S2 may or may not be referring to the fact that the weekly chart has now completed a MACD crossover.
.... therefore... bearish in the short term.

respect... to all


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B1S2, please define what you mean by "short term" in the context of the above. Weeks? Months?
More...


Macd crossovers are not one of things that I look at --or at least I should say that they are way down my list. The main issue here is the numerous short grail and divergence signals on the daily chart. I am still short at this point.
 
thank you B1S2 for clarifying....
... I am trying to improve my ability to spot those..... after reading your descriptions of the grail.

respect...... to all

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Macd crossovers are not one of things that I look at --or at least....
 
Quote from BoyBrutus:

Long 1493.25 stop 1492

Looking for a spike up (10 points :) )on the open vix 18.9 :eek:
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sounds good, last time futures tested 1480 cash shorts got a nasty spanking.
 
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