ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[Spectre2007]

over the past few sessions bonds have been seen being accumulated. The prospect of a longer then usual downturn in sentiment/equities is becoming more likely.

it seems since the economy wont slow down, the destruction of global equity wealth may slow it down. And bond buyers are piling into them and will capitalize on the breakdown in equities.

its a win win situation the longer negative sentiment persists, and ultimately will result in the FED entering a easing cycle. This breakdown in equities has to occur soon since, rationalization of a easing policy during the election year needs to occur.

so bonds could test 4% or on this easing cycle. The key is how long the downturn in equities persists. Whether pessimism takes a foothold.

 

[JSSPMK]

Volente, your inverted H&S, doesn't it need downside prior to its formation for it to be classed as inverted? I disagree with your outlook, but I could be very wrong here IMO bull might resume when 20 moving average starts crossing 50 moving average, I guess that's when PPT will really start getting emergency calls.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1511417>

 

[2006]

Unless this market falls out of bed overnight, I will be looking for longs in the morning (for a morning reversal). No comments on afternoon action.

If we don't break today's lows in the first hour (tomorrow) and range about -- start looking for longs. Volatility should continue into tomorrow, we can easily test today's highs.

 

[Spectre2007]

from the double bottom at 1380 to the double top at 1540, its 160 points. Since both are strong formations price should head to 1460, and if you notice 1460 is where we dropped off from, just it acts as 50% retracement and strong support at the same time.

looking back, the spooz doesnt hit these key supports and buying usually prempts them from being tested by about 20 points or so.

then 1480 becomes the turning point in spooz. Since we are at 1497. Its only 20 points or so more from here or in the 1490 handle in sept futures.

and if you believe we oscillate around here, the risk reward becomes... 20 or so more points to the downside with 40 points to the upside to 1540.

so risk / reward for a intermediate term trade becomes 1:2. If you do enter into this trade. Its absolutely essential that you don't take preemptive profits too quickly and should let the trade run to 1540 on the cash.

Chris

 

[2006]

I'll keep that in mind. Thanks.

 

[volente_00]

Quote from JSSPMK:

Volente, your inverted H&S, doesn't it need downside prior to its formation for it to be classed as inverted? I disagree with your outlook, but I could be very wrong here IMO bull might resume when 20 moving average starts crossing 50 moving average, I guess that's when PPT will really start getting emergency calls.

<img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1511417>

It is not textbook anymore but it can still pan out from here and run to 1550-1560. I think you will see it happen in the next 30 days.

 

[riaamaan]

The topping formation also looks like a mirror image of the bottom formation in March, lending credence to the possibility that we could just as well be the middle of a wave 3 down. Bring your "A" game tomorrow ladies and gents. Hopefully, we'll all correctly recognize the situation as it unfolds and make profits like today.

 

[Spooz Top]

on the flip side.....we have an ominous observation on the 60min.may take some time to build out the right shoulder or they may settle for the existing one.

Dow 13,300 is key...a solid break should take us straight to critical support at 13,200.....looking for an "inside day" today with some vol.

 

[mbusch]

Quote from Spooz Top:

looking for an "inside day" today with some vol.

Yes, so far this looks like a great day for an automated tick-scalping strategy, but not so good for hitting any home runs.

It would take a rally to 1528 for me to enter short with any real enthusiasm, although there's weak resistance at 1523. Likewise, it would take a decline to 1505 for me to enter long enthusiastically, with weak support at 1510.50.

Gap just closed. Maybe we'll run some sell stops here and get down to 1510.50, where I might go long but with a very close stop.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Only shorts should be taken intraday even if longs look profitable. Short term trend change is now complete.