ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
- Status
this saying gets repeated a lot of times, but its this,
the greatest trick the devil ever played on man was that he didnt exist.
a sure sign is to convince everyone of the impending collapse of the market, to bring in enough contrary sentiment to blast higher. When everyone is convinced the market is going higher, it stalls.
We are living in one of the most favorable periods for equities. Having lived through the eighties and nineties, and turn of the century.
Competing asset classes need to offer favorable return on investment to turn the picture for equities. I've lived through many scares, fear greed cycles, the best that anyone can do is once a long term trend has gained a foothold, to just rollover holdings year to year, and stay invested, till the trend shifts.
There are various metrics for a trend shift, and those metrics havent peaked. On the chart we are creating a ascending triangle/wedge pattern.
Chris
the greatest trick the devil ever played on man was that he didnt exist.
a sure sign is to convince everyone of the impending collapse of the market, to bring in enough contrary sentiment to blast higher. When everyone is convinced the market is going higher, it stalls.
We are living in one of the most favorable periods for equities. Having lived through the eighties and nineties, and turn of the century.
Competing asset classes need to offer favorable return on investment to turn the picture for equities. I've lived through many scares, fear greed cycles, the best that anyone can do is once a long term trend has gained a foothold, to just rollover holdings year to year, and stay invested, till the trend shifts.
There are various metrics for a trend shift, and those metrics havent peaked. On the chart we are creating a ascending triangle/wedge pattern.
Chris
triangle, just in time for august.
Wow, quoting "The Usual Suspects" is profound. Favorable period for equities? What makes it so favorable? Rising rates, slowing corp profits and HF blowouts? The [credits] swap-markets are starting to unhinge. I realize that 99.9% of this thread couldn't quote a swap to save their lives, but it's relevant.
REITs peaked when Blackstone bought EOP. How ironic if the NA-markets peak coincident to the BX IPO.
there's a major shift in wealth, lot of the resource producing nations are enjoying the commodity bubbles, the main one being Oil, Russian market expansion, BRIC nation development is speeding up infrastructure outlays, these countries are trying to catch up to the western world. And the goods and services the west provides are being gobbled up by these nations.
Its fueling corporate profit growth. These vast markets are fueling the demand.
Rates haven't hit levels to worry, the market. Lot of the things I was seeing in the mid 90's, I'm seeing repeated in terms of sentiment and doubt. The price channels and volatility expansion are very similar.
The market movements have been pretty conservative to date. Look whats happening in China, till the same type of rampant speculation hits US markets, the US markets have legs.
Its fueling corporate profit growth. These vast markets are fueling the demand.
Rates haven't hit levels to worry, the market. Lot of the things I was seeing in the mid 90's, I'm seeing repeated in terms of sentiment and doubt. The price channels and volatility expansion are very similar.
The market movements have been pretty conservative to date. Look whats happening in China, till the same type of rampant speculation hits US markets, the US markets have legs.
I don't know where to start. G8 trade deficits are proof that we're consuming and not producing, and an emerging/mature market analog [China/US] is simply ridiculous. Why not draw a comparison to the Abidjan Stock Exchange?
"Volatility expansions" are only constructive during cycle lows.
Atticus, everything you state may be true, but the things you mentioned have failed to hit the market.
The market over the years seems to be a construct of optimism/pessimism. Everywhere I look I see people on the whole doing much better now then ever before.
Even with rising oil prices, medical costs, the american public seems to be scraping by and with good sentiment/optimism.
We based out on the pessimism post 911 and 2000 dot.com debacle, and only recently emerging from it. And price action is following with it.
With a change in the political climate or media focus, something may alter this optimism/pessimism.
The optimism emerging in different regions of the world, is fueling these macro cycles.
If the market becomes gripped in pessimism, then I would have to agree the market will collapse. But trying to anticipate the things that can change sentiment is the most important thing.
The market over the years seems to be a construct of optimism/pessimism. Everywhere I look I see people on the whole doing much better now then ever before.
Even with rising oil prices, medical costs, the american public seems to be scraping by and with good sentiment/optimism.
We based out on the pessimism post 911 and 2000 dot.com debacle, and only recently emerging from it. And price action is following with it.
With a change in the political climate or media focus, something may alter this optimism/pessimism.
The optimism emerging in different regions of the world, is fueling these macro cycles.
If the market becomes gripped in pessimism, then I would have to agree the market will collapse. But trying to anticipate the things that can change sentiment is the most important thing.
price pattern
- Status