this whole move was engineered.
ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Different traders use different tools based on their risk:reward, capital they have to work with and the methodology which they feel most comfortable trading.
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For instance Apex82 will use his home-brewed support & resistance levels to take trades which are against the immediate trend in the hopes of catching a reversal move for substantial gains.
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Others will use momentum divergence tools to attempt to determine when price action is petering out and about to take a turn and at least retrace for a small amount.
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For me there's no point in trying to catch a counter-trend move, because trading with the trend will offer me more than enough opportunities to profit under most market conditions ... for example I took the early Long, but cancelled the trade for -2 ticks because I didn't like price action, and the market has proceeded to chop higher, (but that's OK, that same action will save me many a 2pt loss).
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You have to start exploring different types of tools such as:
MACD
Momentum
Pivot Points
Camrilla Pivot Points
Market Profile
etc., to find what works for you, if anyone is using any of these tools successfully, I can guarantee you they've spent long hours both in front of the screen and after hours, studying, developing and honing their skills.
Taking good notes helps.
Good trading,
JJ
Food for bearish fodder?
Gap created with the gap down open on 6/5 was still open from 1552.25 to either the low of last hourly bar on 6/4 of 1554.50, or the close of 6/4 which was 1555.25.
RTH ESU07 chart.
ES has ventured into the gap created on 6/5 (60minute RTH chart).
I'm not sure how you would want to measure a filling of the gap (truly potential reversing point IMO), whether you want to measure to the close of 6/4 which was 1555.25 or the low of the last hourly bar which was 1554.50, but the high today ( so far) has been 1554.00 according to my data, and that's close enough.
Spectre2007, with today being the triple witch (potential for one last shaft to bearish options traders), are you expecting one final lift to create an intraday double top
and on a larger time-frame, a double top (Today) relative to the 6/4 prices.
EIther way, seems ripe for downside regardless of short-term potential for a last gasp lift today.
Just some thoughts...
Gap created with the gap down open on 6/5 was still open from 1552.25 to either the low of last hourly bar on 6/4 of 1554.50, or the close of 6/4 which was 1555.25.
RTH ESU07 chart.
ES has ventured into the gap created on 6/5 (60minute RTH chart).
I'm not sure how you would want to measure a filling of the gap (truly potential reversing point IMO), whether you want to measure to the close of 6/4 which was 1555.25 or the low of the last hourly bar which was 1554.50, but the high today ( so far) has been 1554.00 according to my data, and that's close enough.
Spectre2007, with today being the triple witch (potential for one last shaft to bearish options traders), are you expecting one final lift to create an intraday double top
and on a larger time-frame, a double top (Today) relative to the 6/4 prices.
EIther way, seems ripe for downside regardless of short-term potential for a last gasp lift today.
Just some thoughts...
A little range trading around this 1550 level and followed by creeping up to 1551.50 then a drop would seal the deal nicely with a head and shoulders. A nice vacuum under this mornings lows too.
BTW Apex, your calls amaze me. Have a good time in the Bahamas.
BTW Apex, your calls amaze me. Have a good time in the Bahamas.
risk/reward has to be constantly measured in terms of everything.. news// catalysts price points.. pattern recognition...upcoming events...
the risk is fridays close will be the double top on the daily chart. Then the bears have the mental and chart confirmation to sell it hard to last weeks lows a drop of 50 points or so.
Plus being the summer I favor a range trade. So a 50 point range trade with downside momo is projected for the weeks ahead. Plus other metrics like utilities which joined us in the whole bull rally past few months have to confirm and if they lag its a warning sign.
Then once the fall is here, when the real players are back from vacation, then a reassessment is made. But that reassessment is done when steep discounts are printed.
1460 on the spx... or so.. or more.
the risk is fridays close will be the double top on the daily chart. Then the bears have the mental and chart confirmation to sell it hard to last weeks lows a drop of 50 points or so.
Plus being the summer I favor a range trade. So a 50 point range trade with downside momo is projected for the weeks ahead. Plus other metrics like utilities which joined us in the whole bull rally past few months have to confirm and if they lag its a warning sign.
Then once the fall is here, when the real players are back from vacation, then a reassessment is made. But that reassessment is done when steep discounts are printed.
1460 on the spx... or so.. or more.
Quote from mbusch:
Here comes the right shoulder!
Yup, but its not "creeping" up like I had hoped... more of a surge... we may be in for a double top.
Looks shouldery to me on the 1- and 3-min charts.
This could be a good place to add to longs (with just a bit more downside confirmation). A nice selling tail is developing on the 15-min. If we now drop below 1550, it's parachute time.OOPS: I meant "good place to add to shorts"!!!
I'm presently short from 1553.50 and added on short at 1550.00. Stops are at 1554.25 (for initial short, 1 tick above HOD) and 1552.75 (for add-on, 4 ticks above top of presumptive right shoulder).
As the pilot said to the air traffic controller as he was approaching his destination, "looking for lower."
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