ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
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Posted 2 weeks ago when cash was 1508.
Amazing what the generals can do with a little help from option interest. With expiration next week, I would not be the least surpised to see a move to 1515-1520 from here.
Amazing what the generals can do with a little help from option interest. With expiration next week, I would not be the least surpised to see a move to 1515-1520 from here.
Alright... Ill be the first to admit.. I put my ass on the line for all these calls I made.. and yes I got beatup on some long trades the past few days. Trading is a probabilities game... thats all. I traded perfectly, I had the odds in favour but there is no guarantee. Thats where proper position sizing plays a role. On days like this the market doesnt care about SR levels, its a trainwreck. My market direction was wrong.. and thats going to happen. The fact of the matter is most of my trades were 2-3 point stops with targets of well over 30-80 points... It only takes 1 winning trade to make up for well over 10 or 20 losses. If you think you are going to be right 90% of the time and have an adequate risk/reward you are in the wrong business.
We have a very key zone from 1508-1513... The market tried to hold it but eventually cracked below it going into the close. The issue is whether its just a washout move or they mean business. Typically washout moves form the common H&S pattern. An area is breached for unknown causes and then reverts back to an equilibrium and then holds the zone on the second test. This is where its best to be on the sidelines... market is extremely oversold but is trying to break below a key level.
Tomorrow should be interesting.. If it can get back above that level in a hurry and hold... you will know it was a washout move and we should continue the run up in this bull market. Any break further below will be extremely bearish and wouldnt be surprised if we see 1456 shortly and possibly a move down to 1417. This move down is coming in perfectly with bearish seasonality and some other cycles. The trend is your friend until its about to end and this zone breaking would definately be telling you something.
We have a very key zone from 1508-1513... The market tried to hold it but eventually cracked below it going into the close. The issue is whether its just a washout move or they mean business. Typically washout moves form the common H&S pattern. An area is breached for unknown causes and then reverts back to an equilibrium and then holds the zone on the second test. This is where its best to be on the sidelines... market is extremely oversold but is trying to break below a key level.
Tomorrow should be interesting.. If it can get back above that level in a hurry and hold... you will know it was a washout move and we should continue the run up in this bull market. Any break further below will be extremely bearish and wouldnt be surprised if we see 1456 shortly and possibly a move down to 1417. This move down is coming in perfectly with bearish seasonality and some other cycles. The trend is your friend until its about to end and this zone breaking would definately be telling you something.
Apex,
The most remarkable traders out there have had the exact same experience. It's part of the business and any seasoned trader knows that. It doesn't diminish my opinion of your skills one iota.
Keep up the good work. Don't change a thing because on balance, you win consistently and are the finest day trader I've encountered.
Much respect.
The most remarkable traders out there have had the exact same experience. It's part of the business and any seasoned trader knows that. It doesn't diminish my opinion of your skills one iota.
Keep up the good work. Don't change a thing because on balance, you win consistently and are the finest day trader I've encountered.
Much respect.
Fri, 6/8/07 Intraday price levels
* = significant
< > = concentration of multiple minor levels
footnote: To find ES 1487 and 1480, and NQ 1846.75 price levels, nearly 2 full months of RTH sessions were used. There are no "significant" INTRADAY price levels for ES between 1520 and 1487, and between 1907.25 and 1846.50 for NQ, according to my work. What it means is be careful making intraday top or bottom trades based on levels that have minimal historic basis. Additionally, some of these minor levels have already been traded through, weakening there value even more.
I've had a few questions regarding price levels lately. Firstly, the number of levels, either high or low, is NOT an indication of market bias or direction. Moreover, these levels are not really S/R. They are historic equilibrium levels. To understand that, I suppose an INTRADAY trader must subscribe to the theory that futures move from price level to price level. Intraday futures trading, imo, is really that simple. Once an equilibrium price is reached, the trade needs reevaluation for possibility of movement to the next price level, a return to the previous level, or equilibrium. One of the worst things that can happen to an intraday trader is to get "stuck" for an extended period of time at an equilibrium level. Especially a minor level trying to become something of significance. That said, there is similarity between equilibrium and s/r. But there is large difference in meaning and usage.
A "significant" equilibrium level means the level has an extended period of time and/or volume in reference to other levels. These levels have magnetic properties. Don't ask me why, idk. But they do! Significant equilibrium levels can be used as S/R or targets.
Good trading to all,
Trade what you see, not what you think.
Osorico
* = significant
< > = concentration of multiple minor levels
Code:
[b]
ES YM ER NQ[/b]
1537.50* 13671 854.6 1935.75
1534.25 13665* 853.7* 1932.75
1532.00 13658 850.2* 1930.00
1528.50 13615 847.0 1928.00
1523.50 13608 845.9 1926.50
1522.75 13588 840.0 <1920.00*
<1520.00 13581 838.3* >1917.75
>1514.25* 13535 835.6 1907.25*
<1511.25 13526* 833.4 1903.50
>1507.00 13518 <831.3 1900.75
1503.25 13500 >827.3 1898.50
1501.25 13496 825.0 1894.25
1492.75 13447 818.0* 1890.50
1489.25 13393 814.6 1887.00
1487.00* 13343 1876.25
1480.00* 13277* 1872.75
1863.00
1856.75
1850.00
1846.50*I've had a few questions regarding price levels lately. Firstly, the number of levels, either high or low, is NOT an indication of market bias or direction. Moreover, these levels are not really S/R. They are historic equilibrium levels. To understand that, I suppose an INTRADAY trader must subscribe to the theory that futures move from price level to price level. Intraday futures trading, imo, is really that simple. Once an equilibrium price is reached, the trade needs reevaluation for possibility of movement to the next price level, a return to the previous level, or equilibrium. One of the worst things that can happen to an intraday trader is to get "stuck" for an extended period of time at an equilibrium level. Especially a minor level trying to become something of significance. That said, there is similarity between equilibrium and s/r. But there is large difference in meaning and usage.
A "significant" equilibrium level means the level has an extended period of time and/or volume in reference to other levels. These levels have magnetic properties. Don't ask me why, idk. But they do! Significant equilibrium levels can be used as S/R or targets.
Good trading to all,
Trade what you see, not what you think.
Osorico
Well said, sir, well said! My sentiments exactly.
Brother Apex has more of "the right stuff" than any daytrader I've yet encountered, and his generosity in sharing his ideas and methods and posting his trades has been a gift of immense value.
Watching Apex trade invariably reminds me of Arthur C. Clarke's Third Law: "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic."
I must hasten to give distinguished honorable mention to Osorico, the scalper, and B1S2, the swing trader. Both are clearly masters of their respective trading styles, even as Apex is the master of his rather unique (not to mention magical) style.
Thanks guys.. much appreciated. I just thought I would show why I was adament on my bullish view today when we got down to 1510-1514(1497-1494 on the cash) today. I attached a chart with all the previous examples of the EXACT same setup over the past 4 years. The ellipses shown are the buy areas, and most were within 2-6 points of the exact low.. no joke. You will also notice the majority of them happened around the 50 ema, which also helped as a cf but was not the main component. The only time this setup had some trouble was during the most recent february selloff... and it was a borderline setup at best. You can see how we just got the setup today and why I was bullish....
Define student? One could make the case that the gurus are not actively teaching here. They are basking.
Are you being taught how to draw those magical confluence lines? Are you being taught the methods to establish those equilibrium price levels? This is quite different from seeing them.
Ever see the movie The Prestige? There's a difference between prestidigitation and technique. Not that there isn't any value in the show but it's skewed to entertainment over education. One can only conclude that the continued circumspection is intentional. There's a lot of "this is what I do" not so much "this is how I do". Again there's value in that, but it's marginal compared to the how. The question I have to the gurus is a simple one: why? Seeing how you're here and seem to enjoy it, the additional effort of the occasional wholly pedagogical post is marginal.
I'm sure this isn't a popular sentiment here, as I do follow this thread more than any other and know the trader mindset of dog eat dog and earning your scars. But I certainly don't want to pretend I'm a student of this thread. Because that implies I'm being taught. I'm not. I'm being awed. Quite different.
YMMV
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