ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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the chart looks nasty. Another 10 point drop to 1520 or so on cash, is where only the true support is.

Edit: from analysis of past few weeks price action, a great deal of complacency has been built up in the marketplace. Its a classic move, to make you complacent and then steal your money.
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

Edit: from analysis of past few weeks price action, a great deal of complacency has been built up in the marketplace. Its a classic move, to make you complacent and then steal your money.
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What specific aspects of price action do you consider to be evidence of complacency?
 
easiest way to tell if the market is in trouble is calculate how many days elapse before the previous high is taken out. So if the previous high doesnt get taken out in x number of days. Then the market is entering a dangerous period. And someone will scream fire and run for the door. Or will use the stray Greenie to instigate something.

whats the average number of days before a new high is printed?

its pavlovian training that gets harvested. Huge funds when they are buying thousands of contracts need a huge price range before entering and exiting out of trades. One way is to create a trend, that gets broken. A trend has a psychological basis to it to. When dip buyers get repeatedly rewarded irrespective of anything, it creates complacency. And when a storm starts, the moves become too quick for regular stock holders to react to. And when they do react, the cycle reverses.
 
Quote from JSSPMK:

Would like to hear thoughts on attached "infomercial", is he right by pointing out that it is better to daytrade stocks that are moving that day instead of sticking to just a couple of futures that lack intraday trendiness? If simply making an argument that trading is skill-dependant than he would be wrong, but he does seem to have a valid point of trading markets that attract traders that day ie supply/demand issue. Anyway have a look at the file.
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didn't watch the "infomercial", but agree that stocks are MUCH easier to daytrade and/or swing trade profitably than futures. maybe it's me, i'm not even a year into futures trading, but definitely finding it much harder to daytrade or swing trade futures than to do the same with stocks.
 
Quote from princessa:

didn't watch the "infomercial", but agree that stocks are MUCH easier to daytrade and/or swing trade profitably than futures. maybe it's me, i'm not even a year into futures trading, but definitely finding it much harder to daytrade or swing trade futures than to do the same with stocks.
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then why not switch back to stocks?
 
Quote from princessa:

you got it, buddy. that's exactly what i was thinking....
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I recall browsing through S/R thread and I do believe that strategy of buying/shorting S/R, specifically of an opening range, works more consistently when trading stocks and not futures, IF there are sufficient levels of supply & demand present ie news/earnings. Just my 2 cents.
 
Quote from mbusch:

One word: leverage.
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I would be more concerned with obtaining a very consistent strategy to trade rather than leverage issues, you can go prop with substantially higher leverage compared to leverage offered by retail brokerages. Again just my 2 cents.
 
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