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ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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Anyone going long here? TRIN starting to slope downward and just broke under the 1 level.
:edit: Long NQ at 1930 with 2 point stop... low probability but im looking for sentiment to change back to BUY DIPS
:edit: Long NQ at 1930 with 2 point stop... low probability but im looking for sentiment to change back to BUY DIPS
Just sold that spike that came outa nowhere for +3 points... those always seem to come back to where they started at for at least a reentry.
Quote from tommymoose:
Just sold that spike that came outa nowhere for +3 points... those always seem to come back to where they started at for at least a reentry.
Those "spikes" just don't come out of nowhere. They come from the character or characters I call the 10 O'Clock Joker.
If you check the time and sales for many days at 10 AM Eastern, you will see the same games. In one second this morning, at 10:00:02, 2441 contracts were traded, compared to only 70 the previous second.
My theory? Some big player or players are setting up what I call test spikes, to see if there is genuine buying (or sellling) beyond the 30 minute range. Sometimes you see similar spikes in the early afternoon.
Pay attention, and be prepared to fade the direction of the spike.
Very interesting. So if the upward spike is embraced then the "joker" is long for the time being and if its sold he knows the market is week and starts to position himself short? And what does the joker usually buy/sell all at once- a basket of key stocks or futures or a combination of both?
:edit: orrrr we just determined that the "joker" is just the market reacting to the many 10AM reports that are released lol
:edit: orrrr we just determined that the "joker" is just the market reacting to the many 10AM reports that are released lol
Quote from vertigo3:
ISM services came out stronger than expected released at 10:00am, headline reactions are realities, whether they are presaged by technicals or not.
Question for Smilingsynic: you have seen " testspikes" in the afternoon, are they are at particular times?
After 12 and before 2.
I don't doubt the real impact of reports, but I have seen similar spikes on days in which there were no reports. I have seen unusual action in the first minute of other hours too.
Those who are familiar with trading systems know that a common daytrading approach is the 30 minute breakout. Put a buy stop at day's high plus one tick, and a sell stop at day's low minus one tick.
Such spikes ensure that those who do accordingly lose.
I remember reading a study of mechanical DAX trading based upon previous day's action in S&P, and to improve the performance of the system, the quant did not allow entry until after the first 30 min of DAX trading, something similar performed by U.S. quants could be happening.
When I looked at yesterday's action in ES, it was almost identical to Friday's small range trade and that often means (narrow ranges after a run-up) that the markets are ripe for some profit-taking.
When I looked at yesterday's action in ES, it was almost identical to Friday's small range trade and that often means (narrow ranges after a run-up) that the markets are ripe for some profit-taking.
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