ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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i'm going to make a prediction, fwiw.

es hits 1522.50-1525 sometime next week, probably first three days.

dos centavos...see how much they're worth next week. happy trading, y'all....
 
Quote from steve46:

Sure, programmed trading continues on a 24 hour basis at UBS, Citi, and some at Goldy and Merrill. They aren't however "Black boxes"..They are known strats that are monitored by the second team, with instructions not to intervene but to report to specfic individuals (just my experience).

Is it easier to manipulate price. Yes, I agree. That is why I don't pay much attention to the after hours Globex until the DAX opens the next morning (12:00midnight PST). Then you see the effect of "other timeframe" participants on our markets.

Edit;

By the way, I don't think in terms like yours....Volume shifting...suggests that player use volume to change market direction...That hasn't been my experience....What I have seen is two kinds of market activity....I would characterize one type of activity as market moving or market making, and that is because the participants, largely the big institutions, view themselves as capable of moving markets by use of capital. At least as regards equities, I know from first hand experience that Goldy, if they want, can move the market on a single issue, just about any place they wish.

On the other hand, you have responsive participants like funds, specs, and locals, who for the most part cannot move markets except at specific times. They usually have a mindset that suggests going with the flow.

When markets get thin, it is possible that responsive players could move it, but the extent of the move is usually muted, because those parties still think in the same way (responding instead of initiating)..They don't imagine that they can move an issue by committing capital, so they don't usually try it. It is the hedgers and funds that do the heavy lifting in that case. I don't know if this addresses your point, but its a shot in the dark.

I could say a lot about companies that hedge intraday. I used to execute their business on a regular basis. I will stop here however since that may not be of interest.

Have a good weekend everyone.

Steve
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Thanks for the info Steve.

I made a chart also, I favor histogram big time for daily/weekly analyses. Apart from a possible divergence on that weekly chart, volume has also been declining steadily over the last few weeks. A possible near term target of 20 moving average/50% retrace seems likely in my opinion. What do you think?
 

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hello gentlemen...reading what you are saying about overnight Globex...Does anyone trade the ES overnight?...obviously volume is somewhat thin but the spread always remains .25...more looking at strategies to "position yourself" for the morning move...say go long or short at 23:00 EST etc...what price movements have you observed for the ES overnight and strategies you have used?...thanks...
 
hey jj,

thanks for sharing your thoughts on the book THE TRADING EDGE, by rickey cheung. so far, a good read. nice thoughts.

i'm also considering van tharp's newest book. has anyone read it?
 
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