ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
- Status
Just a quick note.
From my point of view it is at these points in time that what I call "transition" often happens. When I say transition, I mean change of control from buyers to sellers or vice versa. Buyers have been defending all day and have been losing. By now all the big boys are gone at the institutions. Most of the car services send units to the brokerages at about 3PM on friday. So whats left to move it. Funds out of town, Specs, and hedgers. Hedgers have all kinds of agendas, so we can't know what they are trading around. Funds and specs are however doing the same thing (in my opinion) and that is unwinding inventory. So IF there is to be a move, it could be a "selling tail" down.
From my point of view it is at these points in time that what I call "transition" often happens. When I say transition, I mean change of control from buyers to sellers or vice versa. Buyers have been defending all day and have been losing. By now all the big boys are gone at the institutions. Most of the car services send units to the brokerages at about 3PM on friday. So whats left to move it. Funds out of town, Specs, and hedgers. Hedgers have all kinds of agendas, so we can't know what they are trading around. Funds and specs are however doing the same thing (in my opinion) and that is unwinding inventory. So IF there is to be a move, it could be a "selling tail" down.
people still short.. should see some movement up.
Edit: will look to get short asian open sunday.
Edit: will look to get short asian open sunday.
yep.. thats why typically summer trading is shit. Last summer was decent though because of the bear run. It especially gets worse on Fridays during the summer. They are the ones that move markets.. If anything most likely a rally into the close but I suggest closing up shop no point in giving away profits at this point
we could take out the stops on the high of the day.
Sure, programmed trading continues on a 24 hour basis at UBS, Citi, and some at Goldy and Merrill. They aren't however "Black boxes"..They are known strats that are monitored by the second team, with instructions not to intervene but to report to specfic individuals (just my experience).
Is it easier to manipulate price. Yes, I agree. That is why I don't pay much attention to the after hours Globex until the DAX opens the next morning (12:00midnight PST). Then you see the effect of "other timeframe" participants on our markets.
Edit;
By the way, I don't think in terms like yours....Volume shifting...suggests that player use volume to change market direction...That hasn't been my experience....What I have seen is two kinds of market activity....I would characterize one type of activity as market moving or market making, and that is because the participants, largely the big institutions, view themselves as capable of moving markets by use of capital. At least as regards equities, I know from first hand experience that Goldy, if they want, can move the market on a single issue, just about any place they wish.
On the other hand, you have responsive participants like funds, specs, and locals, who for the most part cannot move markets except at specific times. They usually have a mindset that suggests going with the flow.
When markets get thin, it is possible that responsive players could move it, but the extent of the move is usually muted, because those parties still think in the same way (responding instead of initiating)..They don't imagine that they can move an issue by committing capital, so they don't usually try it. It is the hedgers and funds that do the heavy lifting in that case. I don't know if this addresses your point, but its a shot in the dark.
I could say a lot about companies that hedge intraday. I used to execute their business on a regular basis. I will stop here however since that may not be of interest.
Have a good weekend everyone.
Steve
Quote from JimmyJam:
Out @ 1538.75 (on the trade through).
Another 2pts, plus the previous 1.25 = 3.25 on the day.
Not too bad, the idea is to just keep racking up the wins!
Have a very nice weekend all, I'm really enjoying this process a lot more than you know.
Blessings,
Jimmy Jam
figures posted by you total at +1.25 on the day, I think you made a mistake in your calculations somewhere.
- Status