ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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L @ 1539.25, PS @ 1536.25

While the market IS NOT remarkably bullish, it is holding support at yesterday's highs, and as long as it continues to do so, the trade has favorable prospects.

JJ
 

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I have a question for Apex or anyone else who would be willing to share their thoughts / methods on this.

I also look for good setups between support and resistance with specific targets / stops in place. My issue is when we are making new highs I am unsure as to what my target should be.

This is the only time in my trading where I don't have a specific target and play it by feel (which is not all bad).

Anyway, just curious what others use for targets when making new highs (fibs, etc).

Thanks
 
Quote from mbusch:

Do you think it would be reasonable to analyze the upside impulse that started with the 8:30 am employment report as a five-wave move that will probably top out in the next hour or so?
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Apparently not, since the recent local low obliterated my presumptive 5-wave pattern. Still long, though, as long as the uptrend line from yesterday's LOD is not violated. Recent local low just touched it but didn't cross it. NYSE A/D ratio is still bullish and has turned up again.
 
Quote from Jack Nestle:

I have a question for Apex or anyone else who would be willing to share their thoughts / methods on this.

I also look for good setups between support and resistance with specific targets / stops in place. My issue is when we are making new highs I am unsure as to what my target should be.

This is the only time in my trading where I don't have a specific target and play it by feel (which is not all bad).

Anyway, just curious what others use for targets when making new highs (fibs, etc).

Thanks
More...

You can try:

1. PSAR, but will have to modify the settings to avoid whipsaw.
2. Pre-set price targets based on the probability of their being achieved (+2 80%, +4 65%, etc.).
3. A Moving Average, 20 or 40 may suffice depending on your tolerance for loss to attain the highest reward.

JJ
 
Quote from mbusch:

Apparently not, since the recent local low obliterated my presumptive 5-wave pattern. Still long, though, as long as the uptrend line from yesterday's LOD is not violated. Recent local low just touched it but didn't cross it. NYSE A/D ratio is still bullish and has turned up again.
More...

I dont bother with after hour sessions in terms of waves very often.... only at very specific times and today is not the case.

The issue is 1543 to the tick was the minimum target before expecting at least a 10+ point decline... The issue is most move to the typical or maximum in bull markets which would be 1547-1548. You didnt take any off at 1542-1543?
 
Quote from apex82:

You didnt take any off at 1542-1543?
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Unfortunately not. I had a sell limit order in at 1543.00 (exact HOD so far) but didn't get filled. I seem to be having a lot more trouble with tactics than with strategy. :mad:

I notice that you often set a PT and then take profits a bit earlier than planned, based on tactical analysis of price action. This is a skill that I clearly need to develop.

I am a pilot, and in aviation we call the phenomenon of being fixated on reaching the planned destination despite encountering unexpected adverse conditions "get-there-itis." I am not afflicted with it in my flying (been doing it for 40+ years), but apparently still am in my trading, and it's a bad habit.
 
apex,
what method do you use to come up with 1543. If you don't care to divulge, can you direct me to any materials about what parameters of measuring price I should be studying. I had to ask. I mean, it is such a specific number, and we did hit it.
 
Quote from Spectre2007:

trendline break.
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You obviously drew yours a bit differently than I did. I showed that we just kissed the uptrend line but did not violate it. My line was drawn on a chart that included the Globex session rather than just RTH, which is probably the difference.
 
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