ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[Spectre2007]

interesting psychological game today in China. What would you do if you just recently opened a brokerage account, and your holdings are down 6%.

you hope, that a greater fool comes along and buys it from you at breakeven. The question is when enough people expect this, and the noone shows up at the dinner table, you have the makings of a full blown panic, when participants realize, that the pyramid scheme runs out of the next tier of buyers. And the market rollsover onto itself.

its interesting to see what happens.

 

[Spectre2007]

there is a distinct possibility we trade back down in the range. Since the market blew away everyones shorts. People will be looking to get long, and thus the liquidity for the institutions is present for them to sell into throughout the day tomm.

was FOMC minutes enough to fuel a rally. It was more like short covering. A runaway intraday psychological poker game.

a stronger leg would be if we consolidated in the 1525 and 1530 area and make a push up.

 

[osorico]

Quote from Spectre2007:

interesting psychological game today in China. What would you do if you just recently opened a brokerage account, and your holdings are down 6%.

you hope, that a greater fool comes along and buys it from you at breakeven. The question is when enough people expect this, and the noone shows up at the dinner table, you have the makings of a full blown panic, when participants realize, that the pyramid scheme runs out of the next tier of buyers. And the market rollsover onto itself.

its interesting to see what happens.

When I was on an OTC trading desk, we had an MPID for just such situations... TOHU (aka To Who Securities) LOL

Osorico

 

[Spectre2007]

what was most note worthy in March 2000, was whoever exited first regardless of anything else sticks it to the rest of the market since the inflated values are like 'hot potatoes', and whoever gets stuck with them end up losing everything.

in the past the Chinese market was down 25%. I think the 25% loss is a key benchmark, where the market can use some framework to build itself back up.

 

[dmartin]

Buy1Sell2:

I assume you are getting killed on the puts you bought which were about $15.00 and are now $2.75--correct?

DMartin

 

[Spectre2007]

very euphoric feeling. I think most everyone is long here. Watch for a AM countertrend to flush out most everyone.

edit: 1527.50-1537.50

10 point range.

 

[apex82]

Anyone have any experience with Van Tharps Peak Peformance Home Study? I have heard good things about it from several traders and was thinking about doing it.

 

[Jaxon]

looks like a strong Chicago NAPM must be out already.

edit: 61.7 vs 54 expected - that would be strong

 

[Spectre2007]

apex were in your zone now.

 

[Spooz Top]

if we pull another Louisiana move (blue by u) past 38...then looking 42.50/44.