adp employment number.. out in a few minutes. To me the market doesn't feel bullish. I think a we trade sideways till the 4th quarter. When the FED is suppose to be making a decision on interest rates.
the funny thing is expectations were sooner for a FED easing. Now the street has put off those expectations. Has there ever been a time in history where the FED didnt ease but just used global liquidity to pull us out of a slump.
I think this may be the time, where the FED just does nothing for a extended period of time, and lets everything settle out. One thing we can bank on. The BRIC countries will still have high growth rates, and its fueled marginally by a transfer of wealth from the western world. In return we get low inflation in terms of cheap goods.
This global breakdown was evident sooner, morgan was selling in the pit early on. And someone was positioning in hang seng futures last week.
Today we have GDP number and FOMC minutes. Tonight will be tenuous in Asia. So I can't see long term position holders jumping in till Friday. And even Friday it should be recorded as a negative sentiment week overall. We collapse till the June FOMC meeting. Offers the best risk/reward. The likely hood we decay to sub 1500 on cash/spot is there given the time period and different influences impinging globally.
Chris
