ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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I can see your pov, but...
1) it (the break)is not echoed in any other market, or other tf I use. I use 2m and 15m for intraday. These markets are syncronized. That has not changed, and must be included in a traders game plan, at this time, imo.
2) there is a clearly bullish nature to the action, imo. Wide range up, (in reference to down bars in the pattern) and extremely weak down bars, barely able, if at all, to take out previous lows (again within the pattern). Forensically it's not very bearish.
Osorico
I agree not very bearish, but doesn't loke very bullish either. NYSE Advance/Decline has been headed down all day, and is just shy of neutral. We haven't had ES volume >5000 contracts/minute in almost an hour. Looks more sideways to me than anything else. Scalping into the close (or sitting tight and doing nothing) may just be the best strategy until the market develops some conviction one direction or the other.
Yup. Been scalping the YM long-side since I posted my "feeling" based on 2m. Perfect example of why I like the YM vs ES... ES is harder to move the .25 tic without volume than YM. YM is my instrument of choice, especially in chop and/or narrow range days. You can't beat the granularity.
Osorico
Trade closed @ 1519.50 on the trade through (2pts).
Financial indicies were mixed, the COMPX leading (always a good thing), while the TRIN was signalling a sell-off, the VXO wasn't showing any panic, and the Bankers held strong all day.
It was a long wait, but worth going in at strong support on the Long Side.
Good trading,
JJ
Hello all. Gonna start posting my real time es trades here after lurking for a long time. Will also post reasoning behind trades, winners and loosers alike. Look forward to the company.
wish you well
and in response to your comment "more than one way...."
I would say you are certainly right.
If there is any problem for newby traders however, it is this;
When you suggest to newbies that they make decisions based on multiple data points, some of which are open to interpretation, you are on a losing track. The Spoos is a contract traded by skilled professionals and programmers. None of you will be able to beat the programs. Properly prepared, some MAY be able to compete with the professionals working institutional desks. If you have to sit there and think "gee, is this a long signal or not", and "lets see, are all my indicators in line for a short entry?" well by that time boys & girls, your opportunity has passed and what is worse, you can get caught on the wrong side of a reversal spike.
So as to your comment, well, sure but my objection to some of the "advice" is that it is not realistic. Check out this last chart. Just for argument's sake, lets say your were looking at the Compx, the other indices, Trin, Vixo and the Banking Sector, by the time you saw the spike, it would be too late. Thats the purpose of the reversal by the way, to "strand" intra-day traders on the wrong side of the market, and one of the reasons it works, is that "they" (programmers and professionals alike) know how to play against the less prepared traders, and once you are on the wrong side of the market, those same folks know that retail traders are almost always undercapitalized and under pressure to get flat by end of day....From my point of view, either you prepare properly and control your destiny, or you let someone sell you a bill of goods, and then all day long, someone else is controlling you...
I leave it to you folks to figure it out (or not)..Hey someone has to be on the other side of those moves.
Good luck
Steve
and in response to your comment "more than one way...."
I would say you are certainly right.
If there is any problem for newby traders however, it is this;
When you suggest to newbies that they make decisions based on multiple data points, some of which are open to interpretation, you are on a losing track. The Spoos is a contract traded by skilled professionals and programmers. None of you will be able to beat the programs. Properly prepared, some MAY be able to compete with the professionals working institutional desks. If you have to sit there and think "gee, is this a long signal or not", and "lets see, are all my indicators in line for a short entry?" well by that time boys & girls, your opportunity has passed and what is worse, you can get caught on the wrong side of a reversal spike.
So as to your comment, well, sure but my objection to some of the "advice" is that it is not realistic. Check out this last chart. Just for argument's sake, lets say your were looking at the Compx, the other indices, Trin, Vixo and the Banking Sector, by the time you saw the spike, it would be too late. Thats the purpose of the reversal by the way, to "strand" intra-day traders on the wrong side of the market, and one of the reasons it works, is that "they" (programmers and professionals alike) know how to play against the less prepared traders, and once you are on the wrong side of the market, those same folks know that retail traders are almost always undercapitalized and under pressure to get flat by end of day....From my point of view, either you prepare properly and control your destiny, or you let someone sell you a bill of goods, and then all day long, someone else is controlling you...
I leave it to you folks to figure it out (or not)..Hey someone has to be on the other side of those moves.
Good luck
Steve
Did you take it ?
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