Quote from frugi:
Interesting question fearless.
Aggressive shorts come in first because they have had success at this level twice already, while more patient potential aggressive longs stay sidelined and wait. They want to see how strong the bears are and will let the crowd jump in first and do their reconaissance work for them.
However the shorts fail to pull it down easily this time. The sidelined potential longs see this weakness and jump in next to try and overwhelm them while they are showing weakness.
There is a furious battle which is not quickly won by either side. The battle subsides to a pause.
At this point there will be a lot of new longs and shorts both with open positions, or increased vulnerability and thus potential fuel.
The 500 lotter sees how close the battle was, sees how the shorts have become weaker (and the longs more eager) since their last two successes at this level and realises a little push may be enough to trigger the stops of these new weak shorts. He also knows how many traders believe in "the third time's the charm" or variations thereof. His timing is good because he has waited for the battle (volume) to subside before making his move. Thus his volume should have a greater effect than it would have done a few seconds earlier. He gets more value per lot as it were. Once again the canny pro has let others risk their capital to test the ground for him at no cost to himself. Now the market condition has revealed itself that much more and they have exhausted themselves, it is safer to act. Just a wee nudge should be sufficient.
He aims to push the price up into the stops of the fresh weak shorts to get them to cover or reverse. Doing this will also test for fresh long demand from the crowd above the resistance level. If there is some, good, he is already long. If not he can reverse with a tick or two's profit from the stops.
"Fitting fantasy descriptions to hindsight scenarios since 1997".
These few statements reveal a lot, maybe too much for a public forum.
"He aims to push the price up into the stops of the fresh weak shorts to get them to cover or reverse. Doing this will also test for fresh long demand from the crowd above the resistance level. If there is some, good, he is already long. If not he can reverse with a tick or two's profit from the stops. "