ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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I might add that I arrived at the ES doorstep via futures currencies and before that forex.
When I applied my Fx trading plan ( yes it was a plan in those days, not a philosophy) to ES, I came up with some crappy results.
Either I was winning big or I was losing multiple small points.
I can hear the crowd now saying
'But f9 this is trading. Run your profits and cut your loses you dumb ass'
Well, I dont trade the ES this way any more. Have'nt done for some time. In fact I stopped thinking ES - trend ever since I started to actually watch what is happening at the T&S gate and the price.
'Think big and then take baby steps'
Now there is a line lifted right out of my Trading Philosophy.
While we await the open, here is something to consider that concerns trend and counter trend.
ES, time 10:41 and your favourite trend indicator is showing short.
The price has risen and is now 1 tic under a resistance line that has repelled the last two attacks from the longs.
The T&S (99) screams off firstly of shorts, followed by buys and then a mixture of both.
There is a pause ( which is a long time on the ES morning session at an S&R level) and then a 500 buy comes in.
What is happening?
Interesting question fearless.
Aggressive shorts come in first because they have had success at this level twice already, while more patient potential aggressive longs stay sidelined and wait. They want to see how strong the bears are and will let the crowd jump in first and do their reconaissance work for them.
However the shorts fail to pull it down easily this time. The sidelined potential longs see this weakness and jump in next to try and overwhelm them while they are showing weakness.
There is a furious battle which is not quickly won by either side. The battle subsides to a pause.
At this point there will be a lot of new longs and shorts both with open positions, or increased vulnerability and thus potential fuel.
The 500 lotter sees how close the battle was, sees how the shorts have become weaker (and the longs more eager) since their last two successes at this level and realises a little push may be enough to trigger the stops of these new weak shorts. He also knows how many traders believe in "the third time's the charm" or variations thereof. His timing is good because he has waited for the battle (volume) to subside before making his move. Thus his volume should have a greater effect than it would have done a few seconds earlier. He gets more value per lot as it were. Once again the canny pro has let others risk their capital to test the ground for him at no cost to himself. Now the market condition has revealed itself that much more and they have exhausted themselves, it is safer to act. Just a wee nudge should be sufficient.
He aims to push the price up into the stops of the fresh weak shorts to get them to cover or reverse. Doing this will also test for fresh long demand from the crowd above the resistance level. If there is some, good, he is already long. If not he can reverse with a tick or two's profit from the stops.
"Fitting fantasy descriptions to hindsight scenarios since 1997".
Aggressive shorts come in first because they have had success at this level twice already, while more patient potential aggressive longs stay sidelined and wait. They want to see how strong the bears are and will let the crowd jump in first and do their reconaissance work for them.
However the shorts fail to pull it down easily this time. The sidelined potential longs see this weakness and jump in next to try and overwhelm them while they are showing weakness.
There is a furious battle which is not quickly won by either side. The battle subsides to a pause.
At this point there will be a lot of new longs and shorts both with open positions, or increased vulnerability and thus potential fuel.
The 500 lotter sees how close the battle was, sees how the shorts have become weaker (and the longs more eager) since their last two successes at this level and realises a little push may be enough to trigger the stops of these new weak shorts. He also knows how many traders believe in "the third time's the charm" or variations thereof. His timing is good because he has waited for the battle (volume) to subside before making his move. Thus his volume should have a greater effect than it would have done a few seconds earlier. He gets more value per lot as it were. Once again the canny pro has let others risk their capital to test the ground for him at no cost to himself. Now the market condition has revealed itself that much more and they have exhausted themselves, it is safer to act. Just a wee nudge should be sufficient.
He aims to push the price up into the stops of the fresh weak shorts to get them to cover or reverse. Doing this will also test for fresh long demand from the crowd above the resistance level. If there is some, good, he is already long. If not he can reverse with a tick or two's profit from the stops.
"Fitting fantasy descriptions to hindsight scenarios since 1997".
Hello
All good stuff. I am still extremely new at all this, but have been seriously attempting this career for somewhere around 2 years now. I just realized this morning looking at my charts that I have come all the way back around to what I was attempting to use at the beginning. Maybe this time I have learned enough to let this work without over complicating things. Have a good day.
JIM
All good stuff. I am still extremely new at all this, but have been seriously attempting this career for somewhere around 2 years now. I just realized this morning looking at my charts that I have come all the way back around to what I was attempting to use at the beginning. Maybe this time I have learned enough to let this work without over complicating things. Have a good day.
JIM
Quote from frugi:
Interesting question fearless.
Aggressive shorts come in first because they have had success at this level twice already, while more patient potential aggressive longs stay sidelined and wait. They want to see how strong the bears are and will let the crowd jump in first and do their reconaissance work for them.
However the shorts fail to pull it down easily this time. The sidelined potential longs see this weakness and jump in next to try and overwhelm them while they are showing weakness.
There is a furious battle which is not quickly won by either side. The battle subsides to a pause.
At this point there will be a lot of new longs and shorts both with open positions, or increased vulnerability and thus potential fuel.
The 500 lotter sees how close the battle was, sees how the shorts have become weaker (and the longs more eager) since their last two successes at this level and realises a little push may be enough to trigger the stops of these new weak shorts. He also knows how many traders believe in "the third time's the charm" or variations thereof. His timing is good because he has waited for the battle (volume) to subside before making his move. Thus his volume should have a greater effect than it would have done a few seconds earlier. He gets more value per lot as it were. Once again the canny pro has let others risk their capital to test the ground for him at no cost to himself. Now the market condition has revealed itself that much more and they have exhausted themselves, it is safer to act. Just a wee nudge should be sufficient.
He aims to push the price up into the stops of the fresh weak shorts to get them to cover or reverse. Doing this will also test for fresh long demand from the crowd above the resistance level. If there is some, good, he is already long. If not he can reverse with a tick or two's profit from the stops.
"Fitting fantasy descriptions to hindsight scenarios since 1997".
Your fantasy is my fantasy frugi and I would be long behind our 500 lotter, because the most likely outcome is small win/big win, depending on how many big boys throw their weight behind the scrum. My guess is for a big push since they have caught so many traders on the wrong foot and now they will flattening providing more fuel to the longs.
You have obviously done this before frugi.
Seems like it may not be able to make up to 1498-1500. This 1494 zone is holding well as expected. I am now short at 1493.50 with a stop at 1494.50. All indices have the strucutre to get a move down. Profit targets will be reduced due to range reduction days that monday usually produce. This trade is countertrend, with minimal risk.
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