ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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I've been very restrained (trading-wise) this week. Minimal size and less than daily average number of trades. That was the case playing the rally too. [shrug]
But I can now move back to normalcy, with the unknown quantity (the fed) no longer holding the markets immediate attention.
Good trading to all
Osorico
Quote from osorico:
Just checking in...
YM... watch this area closely!! 560-620 is the "big" gap from the 2/27/07 debacle. This area in YM is double strength (for lack of a better term)... The debacle gap encompassed a gap from 2/13/07 in the same range.
Bottomline: if this area taken out, it means bears have capitulated, for now.
Osorico
A correction, also low-end adjust based on today... 12570-12645
Well I was clearly wrong on my analysis of getting another move down from 1430-1431 area to retest the lows made on the 16th and move possibly lower. I took a minor hit and am ready to move on. Nothing beats 10 to 1 or 20 to 1 reward to risk so you cant be right 100% of the time.
Today was clearly a short covering rally once they took out the feb. 28 highs. The key will be if the buyers will step up now after most of the bears got squeezed. I am noticing a nice 5 wave structure forming... remember I always anticipate moves days and weeks ahead. Due to the impulsive nature of this rally I would expect a pretty good decline into the second buy zone I have shown in the attached chart. 1429-1430. If this zone is taken out we most likely continue lower and retest the lows in the 1395 area. This 1449-1450 area is key resistance. Anything above and I dont have much confluence.
I will be looking to buy these 2 zones and look for a retest of todays high and possibly higher. Unfortunately, there is not much immediate lower level structure so the strength of both zones are pretty much the same. If I had to rank them, I would put more weight on the second zone because if the market gets down there you are getting better value. Also keep an eye on the 15minute 50 ema.
If we are currently in wave 3 this thing can rally for however long it wants. If you want to call a top I suggest waiting for a stop run above todays high and a washout volume spike.
-Apex
Today was clearly a short covering rally once they took out the feb. 28 highs. The key will be if the buyers will step up now after most of the bears got squeezed. I am noticing a nice 5 wave structure forming... remember I always anticipate moves days and weeks ahead. Due to the impulsive nature of this rally I would expect a pretty good decline into the second buy zone I have shown in the attached chart. 1429-1430. If this zone is taken out we most likely continue lower and retest the lows in the 1395 area. This 1449-1450 area is key resistance. Anything above and I dont have much confluence.
I will be looking to buy these 2 zones and look for a retest of todays high and possibly higher. Unfortunately, there is not much immediate lower level structure so the strength of both zones are pretty much the same. If I had to rank them, I would put more weight on the second zone because if the market gets down there you are getting better value. Also keep an eye on the 15minute 50 ema.
If we are currently in wave 3 this thing can rally for however long it wants. If you want to call a top I suggest waiting for a stop run above todays high and a washout volume spike.
-Apex
Of all the days to miss the festivities:eek:
Due to other commitments, I didn't participate in the escapades.
Can you kind ES/YM'ers fill me in with a brief rundown of today's action at FOMC release time, looked like:
1) massive short covering spike which
2) then sold off fast and heavy only to
3) spend rest of trading session riding the bucking bronco up!
Congrats to all who caught this coming and going!
Due to other commitments, I didn't participate in the escapades.
Can you kind ES/YM'ers fill me in with a brief rundown of today's action at FOMC release time, looked like:
1) massive short covering spike which
2) then sold off fast and heavy only to
3) spend rest of trading session riding the bucking bronco up!
Congrats to all who caught this coming and going!
Wasn't as fast as Jan 31. No downside shakeout, and after the first 15 minutes slow orderly low volume action. No sharp breaks higher off retracements, very slow on low volume. Just like the last big move down.
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