ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Spectre, I find myself constantly redrawing trendlines as the day goes on, from longer to shorter timeframes - as a result, I can always find a trendline that is getting violated.

For intraday trading, am I drawing trendlines too often by doing that - or should I just do a new line at some interval like every 30 minutes?

Also, is it safe to say that everyone in ES Journal is following TICK/TRIN?

Thanks for the feedback!
 
I am just about to hit the sack and thought I would post a little about the questions.

First off, thanks for all the comments its nice to see this forum work together rather then attack and bash every post. Even though we are technically opponents I think there is plenty of money up for grabs out there.

Secondly, I am definately a HE. We all have our edges or personalities that define the type of trader we are. I am a trader like buy1sell2, we share some of the same methodologies but definately not the same entry or timeframe. I think a successful strategy should be robust enough to work on any market and any timeframe. This is why I have chosen to focus on daytrading as my main source of income because I love the action and exploiting an edge as many times as it becomes available. However, I do have longer term positions and other portfolios, but most of my attention is focused on daytrading. B1S2 is clearly more fit for longer term trading because that is what suits him best. Finding out the type of trader you are is definately one of those things where its easier said then done.

For example, I would say most people use or know what trendlines are. They are primitive and can produce decent results. However, I am not a breakout trader, I tried it for awhile when I started out and just could not do it. I have some scars from it and my psychology goes awry. I always felt the risk was to high and I hated getting into a move after it had already began. I am a freight train trader for the most part. You can tell from my trades and my zones that I am just throwing out an order way before hand, I dont care if its catching a falling knife etc. I am confident in my edges and just trade my plan. Usually, my trades entail me getting in before a trendline is even started and taking some profits into the breakout of that trendline. I always like being ahead of the game and anticipating the move. Ultimately, futures move from one set of stops to the next. Where do you think most stops were after we broke below the previous lows today? Above the market, therefore the market will find its way to get back to an equilbrium.

My zones are a combination of practical ewave anaylsis, fibs, trendlines, medianlines, structure, multitimeframes, overlapping pivots, some ema's and research on cycles(option expiration,employment friday etc) Coupling all of these techniques and finding confluence areas with all of these together produces synergy. You can just imagine a 1-2 point zone that encompasses about 10+ factors and how strong that would be. This is how I trade and what works for me. Next time you think you have a sr level, look around and see if you find anything else in the area that would also confirm the strength. Make a note of the setup or the other factors that could possibly make it stronger. I cant tell you how many saved sr levels and charts that I have saved on my computer that I review every now and then.

Im done ranting... Lets just keep on top of our game. In trading you never stop learning..

Here is an example of taking notes on charts and reviewing them after the fact. I posted this RTH chart in the forum a few weeks ago before it completed its move.

<IMG SRC=http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1397815>

<IMG SRC=http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1397818>
 
if you have multiple timeframes up on the same derivative, you can pretty much tell what frames are being violated and what frames are about to be violated.

if you notice when a violation occurs the market gaps, which signifies others are watching the same trendlines. I watch the tape, and put up stocks that are holding up well, if those stocks start deteriorating, then people are throwing the baby out with the bathwater and indicates where the sentiment is.

ES is one of the easiest pairs of most instruments to trade, there seems to be a great deal of traditional followthrough moves, and it shows where it will go as long as your open to it.

For example today seems like its going to be a down day, a counter move in other markets as well, bonds may rally off the tame inflation news, dollar will get reduced, gold will fall, oil should fall also. Yen carry trades will get hit again. The macro movements seem to counter the previous days signals. It doesnt feel like the pain in equities is over yet.
 
range 1406----------------------1396---------------------------1386


the fed wont cut rates, funds will sell any rally's to unload positions. Inflation is ticking up.
 
Why does it feel like the tension is so thick you can cut it with a knife. The market seems to have decided to take a little nap.....I can't shake the feeling that its going to wake up and go on a rampage.
 
today seems like a bad day. 1366 is possible. Stay short at the first violation from above of the open range. Future inflation data is implied to be worriesome to the fed also.

carry trade being unwound. The movements in the market may not make sense, since you might argue shouldn't usdjpy go up if the fed is less likely to cut rates. It should but, the currency markets and other markets are working off the 'easy money' principle. If easy money is not going to be available then, speculative markets where that money flowed into are susceptible to being hit.

Gold/Oil/Equities/Yen crosses

when all these other markets get hit, bonds enjoy inflows, thats why you see bonds not reacting too much to the negative inflation news.

global liquidity crunch trend underway. This is the main theme thats going to dominate the markets macro wise.
 
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