ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
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Bump (of relevant comments) posted 2/9/07.
Friday was trading day 9.
The poorly defined nature of this period has been exploited, in particular by ER2 and NQ. They refuse to acknowledge. YM and ES at least acknowledge, although most of the period has been in the up portion of the expectation. There is at least 1 trading day still expected in this period, before the start of a well defined up lasting into the first full week of March.
What does this mean? By itself, the poorly defined nature of the period makes it difficult to read. The failure of NQ and ER2 to acknowledge however, suggests one of two scenarios...
1) the period extends, meaning the ensuing up period is shortened. -OR-
2) fast (and potentially sharp) acknowledgement of the down.
Of course some may be thinking "no acknowledgment and the ensuing up begins." Historically, this scenario has less than 7% probability. There also exists the eccentric possiblity that the markets will de-syncronize. I don't see that, at this time. Longer time frames show no signs. Again, this analysis is based purely on my cycle work with no other inputs.
Given indexes (worldwide!)are moving in tandem, ES and YM will follow suit. Thursday was a good example of this (USA) syncronicity... ER2 was the only index to negate a bear flag, visible on 15m on all index futs Thursday midday. ES, YM, and NQ subsequently reversed and negated the pattern as well.
As previously stated, due to the statistics of this bull run, probability is high that downside will be exacerbated, both in depth and duration.
Not bull nor bear, price action will dictate.
Osorico
EDIT: In case you're wondering, Ensign updated it's ware this past week to properly deal with the extended intraday backfill now provided by IQF. And yes, I upgraded my version. Haven't verified data however.
I don't like to be bearish, but the housing news can give the equity market a cold which can progress to full blown sepsis.
night session just shot up a full point in about 3 seconds.
Thanks for the post Osorico.Quote from osorico:
Bump (of relevant comments) posted 2/9/07.
Friday was trading day 9.
The poorly defined nature of this period has been exploited, in particular by ER2 and NQ. They refuse to acknowledge. YM and ES at least acknowledge, although most of the period has been in the up portion of the expectation. There is at least 1 trading day still expected in this period, before the start of a well defined up lasting into the first full week of March.
What does this mean? By itself, the poorly defined nature of the period makes it difficult to read. The failure of NQ and ER2 to acknowledge however, suggests one of two scenarios...
1) the period extends, meaning the ensuing up period is shortened. -OR-
2) fast (and potentially sharp) acknowledgement of the down.
Of course some may be thinking "no acknowledgment and the ensuing up begins." Historically, this scenario has less than 7% probability. There also exists the eccentric possiblity that the markets will de-syncronize. I don't see that, at this time. Longer time frames show no signs. Again, this analysis is based purely on my cycle work with no other inputs.
Given indexes (worldwide!)are moving in tandem, ES and YM will follow suit. Thursday was a good example of this (USA) syncronicity... ER2 was the only index to negate a bear flag, visible on 15m on all index futs Thursday midday. ES, YM, and NQ subsequently reversed and negated the pattern as well.
As previously stated, due to the statistics of this bull run, probability is high that downside will be exacerbated, both in depth and duration.
Not bull nor bear, price action will dictate.
Osorico
I'm looking for a move back up to the highs, followed by a downward plunge which breaks the initial run-up from a couple of weeks ago (basically, flushing the Bears, then reversing and flushing the Bulls, very interesting that cycle analysis that you're doing.
Hold over the weekend currently positive, let's see if I can get a nice run-up off the Open for my troubles.
Good trading,
JJ
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