My bet LOD is 35.75
ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
- Status
1433 anyone!? dont be a hero and buy this market. These days have a tendency to cut through any sr level. Just keep on the short side and sell the next big rally. I dont like anything on the long side until 802-803 in er2 and 1433 in ES. But I am not stepping in front of this freight train.
Have to end the week with printing this and putting it up on my wall.
http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1352551
to.......
http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1352551
to.......
According to my cycle work...
1) The last short term (up) cycle was right on the mark, as posted. Now, daily short term cycle is in a funk. The next week and a half or so (7 to 10 trading days) is poorly formed down/up/down. By itself, this suggests whipsaw action if no follow-thru on down moves, especially with the short duration for multiple cyclic moves. Beyond this period, there is a well defined up lasting into the first full week of March. Like everyone else, I am considering the possibility that *if* the down move is the "big one", it *could* be deeper and last longer than anyone expects given the overall statistics of the current longer term trend. Todays action put in perspective was nothing. NQ futs closed down over 1% (1.62% to be precise) all other major index futs closed down less than 1%. Just the kind of action one would expect based on above.
Interestingly, recently some guru on CNBC was talking about seasonal cycles in Nat Gas... His outlook, based on natgas seasonality, was very similar. Lots of chop until end of Feb, then up. I never correlated natgas seasonality with my work, but it might be an interesting rainy weekend project.
2) Weekly cycle remains intact. In fact, I could make an argument that this could continue beyond summer. But I don't make predictions like that. Meanwhile, there is nothing suggestive that this cycle is finished or even rolling over.
3) At this time all major indexes ES/YM/ER2/NQ, remain synced. Not lockstep, just overall direction.
Use it, don't use it. It serves me well. Have a good weekend.
Play what you see,
Osorico
PS. for those wondering what this junque is, all I will say is it is based on trading days (not calendar), RTH, and has been backtested 25 years, (1982... ahhh, the year I started as assistant trader on a West Coast OTC desk. I wonder where my intraday/shortterm orientation comes from?) on index futs, full and/or mini, or underlying for periods where no direct correlated futs existed. Russell only has backtest since 1985. Is it the holy grail? No.
1) The last short term (up) cycle was right on the mark, as posted. Now, daily short term cycle is in a funk. The next week and a half or so (7 to 10 trading days) is poorly formed down/up/down. By itself, this suggests whipsaw action if no follow-thru on down moves, especially with the short duration for multiple cyclic moves. Beyond this period, there is a well defined up lasting into the first full week of March. Like everyone else, I am considering the possibility that *if* the down move is the "big one", it *could* be deeper and last longer than anyone expects given the overall statistics of the current longer term trend. Todays action put in perspective was nothing. NQ futs closed down over 1% (1.62% to be precise) all other major index futs closed down less than 1%. Just the kind of action one would expect based on above.
Interestingly, recently some guru on CNBC was talking about seasonal cycles in Nat Gas... His outlook, based on natgas seasonality, was very similar. Lots of chop until end of Feb, then up. I never correlated natgas seasonality with my work, but it might be an interesting rainy weekend project.
2) Weekly cycle remains intact. In fact, I could make an argument that this could continue beyond summer. But I don't make predictions like that. Meanwhile, there is nothing suggestive that this cycle is finished or even rolling over.
3) At this time all major indexes ES/YM/ER2/NQ, remain synced. Not lockstep, just overall direction.
Use it, don't use it. It serves me well. Have a good weekend.
Play what you see,
Osorico
PS. for those wondering what this junque is, all I will say is it is based on trading days (not calendar), RTH, and has been backtested 25 years, (1982... ahhh, the year I started as assistant trader on a West Coast OTC desk. I wonder where my intraday/shortterm orientation comes from?) on index futs, full and/or mini, or underlying for periods where no direct correlated futs existed. Russell only has backtest since 1985. Is it the holy grail? No.
- Status