ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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I want to start out by saying that nothing is guaranteed, trading is the accumulation of odds and probabilities.

With that said, we have many patterns in place for a large directional breakout today across all indices. I wont go into to much detail as this post would never end. I will tell you that today is very high rated. The only contigency is the amount of economic data.

I am expecting a range of about 12-15 points on the er2.

The Key zones for the er2:

R1 817-819

S1 804.50-805.50

S2 802-803

Typically on days like this we see the market open at one extreme and close in the opposite extreme. The only nuance to that is the strong resistance zone at 817-819. With the market opening lower I could definately see a possibilty of reversing in this zone. If the market can a breakout above that zone we most likely continue moving higher.

Any confirmed breakout below 802 and we could see an extended move to the downside.

ES key zones:

S1 1445-1446

S2 1440-1441.50

R1 1456.50-1457.50

R2 1459.50-1461

Best to trade with the trend on days like this. SR levels are usually cut through like butter. Also really important to watch volume in the first hour of trading. Institutions must be on line...

Good Trading
 
Interesting article in Feb 2007 issue of Active Trader. http://www.activetradermag.com/ . Analysis of next day closing price of futures when previous day futures close is above or below cash price.

Take away: 69% of the time, ES closes higher the day following a higher close on futures vs cash. YM has similar stats. NQ and ER2 less precise, but stronger down move when futures closes below cash.

Should be at your local newsstand or bookstore.
 
looking for a down wash out to 1430's on cash very soon. You have been warned. When ? Once the generals get done selling calls at the 1450 level.
 
Quote from osorico:


...
BTW; all indexes are synced for the time being. My cycle work suggests this should hold for the next 4 or 5 trading days. ...
...

Just a bump. Today is the 4th trading day since this post.
 
Quote from osorico:

Just a bump. Today is the 4th trading day since this post.

O, I posted this on the first. I guess you could say it is pattern theory or cycle if you want. I think we are close to that wash out to the 30's.

:)



Quote from volente_00:

window dressing
 
Quote from volente_00:

O, I posted this on the first. I guess you could say it is pattern theory or cycle if you want. I think we are close to that wash out to the 30's.

:)

Depends on what you are anchored too. Mine is not based on earnings or eom/q/y calendars. And it's way too soon to pick price levels, just overall direction. Still too early to call the change in overall short-term direction as well, imo.
 
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