ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
- Status
The NQ is more shortable than ES right now. --Using a stop above the recent reaction high. Then increasing position size on the next signal again with a relatively small stop outside the noise. There is no issue with the stop out potential. Notice how your reward to risk is very very good once the trade comes in and runs. This is the way to success in this business. Control losses. Let Winners run. Do not scale out. 
It looks like ES is finally coming into equilibrium, and we are getting two sided trade going on.
For the first time since the FOMC push up, we've actually seen responsive sellers come into the marketplace.
I'm guessing the 1443-46 area is probably "too cheap" and will continue to attract responsive buyers, and the 53+ area is "too expensive" will continue to attract responsive sellers.
Speculative open interest remains to the long side, so I hypothesize there are probably more people out there with a natural need to sell than to buy. Until the downside ball gets rolling, however, its a buyers market.
BTW, I understand that for every long there is a short, but I work of the theory that the speculators will be the first to bail on their positions if the screws are put to them.
For the first time since the FOMC push up, we've actually seen responsive sellers come into the marketplace.
I'm guessing the 1443-46 area is probably "too cheap" and will continue to attract responsive buyers, and the 53+ area is "too expensive" will continue to attract responsive sellers.
Speculative open interest remains to the long side, so I hypothesize there are probably more people out there with a natural need to sell than to buy. Until the downside ball gets rolling, however, its a buyers market.
BTW, I understand that for every long there is a short, but I work of the theory that the speculators will be the first to bail on their positions if the screws are put to them.
US Political, Economic Calendar - Week Ahead
All dates are in ET Time.
Monday, February 5, 2007
ET/GMT Expected Previous
0900/1400 Tsy Asst Secy Solomon, Dep Asst Secy
Carroll hold press briefing in
Washington
1000/1500 Jan ISM Non-Mfg Index 57.0 56.7
1000/1500 Pres Bush releases FY08 budget proposal
Tuesday, February 6, 2007
ET/GMT Expected Previous
0745/1245 Feb 3 ICSC Chain Store Sales -0.9%
0855/1355 Feb 3 Redbook Retail Sales Index +1.6%
1000/1500 Tsy Secy Paulson testifies before U.S.
House Ways & Means panel On FY08 budget
proposal in Washington
1300/1800 Chicago Fed Pres Moskow speaks on
growth and development of the Chicago
economy at the University of Illinois
at Chicago
1330/1830 Fed Chmn Bernanke speaks before the
Greater Omaha Chamber of Commerce in
Omaha, Neb.
1500/2000 Jan Tsy STRIPS
1530/2030 San Francisco Fed Pres Yellen speaks on
"Perspectives on the Asian Financial
Crisis 10 Years Later" in Los Angeles
1700/2200 Feb 4 ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence -3
Index
Wednesday, February 7, 2007
ET/GMT Expected Previous
0700/1200 Feb 2 MBA Refinancing Index +4.9%
0815/1315 Philadelphia Fed Pres Plosser speaks on
economic outlook prospects for 2007 in
Philadelphia
0830/1330 4Q Non-Farm Labor Productivity, prelim +1.5% +0.2%
0830/1330 4Q Unit Labor Costs, prelim +2.0% +2.3%
1000/1500 Tsy Secy Paulson testifies before U.S.
House Budget panel On FY08 budget
proposal in Washington
1030/1530 Feb 2 US Energy Dept Crude Oil Stocks (in +2.7M
barrels)
1030/1530 Feb 2 US Energy Dept Distillate Stocks (in -2.6M
barrels)
1030/1530 Feb 2 US Energy Dept Gasoline Stocks (in +3.8M
barrels)
1500/2000 Dec Consumer Credit +$6.7B +$12.3B
Thursday, February 8, 2007
ET/GMT Expected Previous
0830/1330 Feb 3 Jobless Claims +7K -20K
1000/1500 Jan 27 DJ-BTMU Business Barometer +0.2%
1000/1500 Dec Wholesale Trade +0.6% +1.3%
1000/1500 Tsy Secy Paulson testifies before U.S.
Senate Budget panel On FY08 budget
proposal in Washington
1030/1530 Feb 2 US Energy Dept Natural Gas Stocks (in -186
billion cubic feet)
1630/2130 Money Supply
N/A Jan Chain Store Sales
Friday, February 9, 2007
ET/GMT Expected Previous
0845/1345 St. Louis Fed Pres Poole speaks on the
state of the American economy in
Brentwood, Mo.
1300/1800 Dallasd Fed Pres Fisher speaks on the
economic outlook in Dallas
N/A No major economic indicators scheduled
All dates are in ET Time.
Monday, February 5, 2007
ET/GMT Expected Previous
0900/1400 Tsy Asst Secy Solomon, Dep Asst Secy
Carroll hold press briefing in
Washington
1000/1500 Jan ISM Non-Mfg Index 57.0 56.7
1000/1500 Pres Bush releases FY08 budget proposal
Tuesday, February 6, 2007
ET/GMT Expected Previous
0745/1245 Feb 3 ICSC Chain Store Sales -0.9%
0855/1355 Feb 3 Redbook Retail Sales Index +1.6%
1000/1500 Tsy Secy Paulson testifies before U.S.
House Ways & Means panel On FY08 budget
proposal in Washington
1300/1800 Chicago Fed Pres Moskow speaks on
growth and development of the Chicago
economy at the University of Illinois
at Chicago
1330/1830 Fed Chmn Bernanke speaks before the
Greater Omaha Chamber of Commerce in
Omaha, Neb.
1500/2000 Jan Tsy STRIPS
1530/2030 San Francisco Fed Pres Yellen speaks on
"Perspectives on the Asian Financial
Crisis 10 Years Later" in Los Angeles
1700/2200 Feb 4 ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence -3
Index
Wednesday, February 7, 2007
ET/GMT Expected Previous
0700/1200 Feb 2 MBA Refinancing Index +4.9%
0815/1315 Philadelphia Fed Pres Plosser speaks on
economic outlook prospects for 2007 in
Philadelphia
0830/1330 4Q Non-Farm Labor Productivity, prelim +1.5% +0.2%
0830/1330 4Q Unit Labor Costs, prelim +2.0% +2.3%
1000/1500 Tsy Secy Paulson testifies before U.S.
House Budget panel On FY08 budget
proposal in Washington
1030/1530 Feb 2 US Energy Dept Crude Oil Stocks (in +2.7M
barrels)
1030/1530 Feb 2 US Energy Dept Distillate Stocks (in -2.6M
barrels)
1030/1530 Feb 2 US Energy Dept Gasoline Stocks (in +3.8M
barrels)
1500/2000 Dec Consumer Credit +$6.7B +$12.3B
Thursday, February 8, 2007
ET/GMT Expected Previous
0830/1330 Feb 3 Jobless Claims +7K -20K
1000/1500 Jan 27 DJ-BTMU Business Barometer +0.2%
1000/1500 Dec Wholesale Trade +0.6% +1.3%
1000/1500 Tsy Secy Paulson testifies before U.S.
Senate Budget panel On FY08 budget
proposal in Washington
1030/1530 Feb 2 US Energy Dept Natural Gas Stocks (in -186
billion cubic feet)
1630/2130 Money Supply
N/A Jan Chain Store Sales
Friday, February 9, 2007
ET/GMT Expected Previous
0845/1345 St. Louis Fed Pres Poole speaks on the
state of the American economy in
Brentwood, Mo.
1300/1800 Dallasd Fed Pres Fisher speaks on the
economic outlook in Dallas
N/A No major economic indicators scheduled
Key levels for today for ES:
Support at 1444.75-1446.50
Support 2 at 1440.50-1441.50
Resistance at 1456.25-1458
Resistance 2 at 1464-1465
Key Levels for today for ER:
Resistance 817-819
Support 807.50-808.50
Support 2 804-805.50
Market is overbought, expect a pullback to wash out the weak longs soon. Mondays are typically range reduction days. However, there are some factors that could provide for a breakout day. The best case scenario would be to see another range day and a perfect setup for an extended move tomorrow.
Good Trading
Support at 1444.75-1446.50
Support 2 at 1440.50-1441.50
Resistance at 1456.25-1458
Resistance 2 at 1464-1465
Key Levels for today for ER:
Resistance 817-819
Support 807.50-808.50
Support 2 804-805.50
Market is overbought, expect a pullback to wash out the weak longs soon. Mondays are typically range reduction days. However, there are some factors that could provide for a breakout day. The best case scenario would be to see another range day and a perfect setup for an extended move tomorrow.
Good Trading
trade fridays range, till it breaks out.
- Status