ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[riaamaan]

Right on Vol.

 

[BoyBrutus]

US Political, Economic Calendar - Week Ahead
FOMC and Non-farm Payrolls this week


All dates are in ET Time.


Monday, January 29, 2007
ET/GMT Expected Previous
1030/1530 Jan Dallas Fed Mfg Production Index -5.2
1200/1700 Dec Chicago Fed Midwest Mfg Index +0.3%
1500/2000 1Q Tsy borrowing needs

Tuesday, January 30, 2007
ET/GMT Expected Previous
0745/1245 Jan 27 ICSC Chain Store Sales +0.1%
0830/1330 Dec Personal Income +0.6% +0.3%
0830/1330 Dec Personal Consumption +0.8% +0.5%
0855/1355 Jan 27 Redbook Retail Sales Index +1.6%
1000/1500 Jan Conference Board Consumer Confidence 110.0 109.0
Index
1700/2200 Jan 28 ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence -3
Index
N/A Two-Day FOMC meeting begins

Wednesday, January 31, 2007
ET/GMT Expected Previous
0700/1200 Jan 26 MBA Refinancing Index -9.6%
0815/1315 Jan ADP/Macroeconomic Advisors Employment +167K
Estimate
0830/1330 4Q GDP, advance +3.0% +2.0%
0830/1330 4Q Employment Cost Index +1.0% +1.0%
0900/1400 Tsy refunding announcement
1000/1500 Tsy Secy Paulson testifies before U.S.
Senate Banking panel on intl economic
and exchange rate policy in Washington
1000/1500 Jan Chicago PMI 52.5 51.6
1000/1500 Dec Construction Spending +0.2% -0.2%
1030/1530 Jan 26 US Energy Dept Crude Oil Stocks (in +700,000
barrels)
1030/1530 Jan 26 US Energy Dept Distillate Stocks (in +4M
barrels)
1030/1530 Jan 26 US Energy Dept Gasoline Stocks (in +700,000
barrels)
N/A Pres Bush speaks on the economy in New
York
N/A Two-day FOMC meeting continues;
interest rate decision expected about
2:15 p.m. EST

Thursday, February 1, 2007
ET/GMT Expected Previous
0730/1230 Jan Challenger Layoffs Survey -29%
0830/1330 Dec Personal Income +0.6% +0.3%
0830/1330 Dec Personal Spending +0.8% +0.5%
0830/1330 Jan 27 Jobless Claims -10K +36K
0930/1430 CEA Chmn Lazear speaks before the
Chicago Council on Global Affairs
on the president's Economic Report
1000/1500 Jan 20 DJ-BTMU Business Barometer -0.1%
1000/1500 Dec Pending Home Sales -0.5%
1000/1500 Jan ISM Mfg Index 52.0 51.4
1030/1530 Jan 26 US Energy Dept Natural Gas Stocks (in -179
billion cubic feet)
1630/2130 Money Supply
N/A Jan Auto Sales 16.4M

Friday, February 2, 2007
ET/GMT Expected Previous
0830/1330 Jan Non-farm Payrolls +150K +167K
0830/1330 Jan Unemployment Rate 4.5%
0940/1440 Jan ECRI Inflation Gauge 119.6
1000/1500 Jan University of Michigan Consumer 98.0 98.0
Sentiment Index, final
1000/1500 Dec Factory Orders +0.9%

 

[BoyBrutus]

Quote from porge:

If someone can give me one good trading rule that has been gained from this forum, I will applaud them and apologize. Not some penny ante trend is friend junior achievement stuff. even though truer words were never spoken......

Strong run, weak turn - Porgie

What more do you need ?

 

[bighog]

volente,

Yes, good stuff. But a question. What is T theory?

I like the 10 rule also but i refined it as i moved along the learning curve. We all MUST find what works best for us as an individual in order to become consistent. I prefer to BOOK profits whenever i get 5 handles to the good rather than 10 handles. Why? Because i am also a great fan of your 50% retrace rule. Thus, when i get 5 handles in the bag, my intention is to keep that bag as the days minimum goal. In general, if a trader bags a 5 handle he/she can then reevaluate the trends # of legs, the trends angle, the severity of previous retraces time of day etc, etc to determine if a reentry is possible or best to look for a reversal.

Now the rule of 10 works fine but i want to bag the 5 and maybe get more out of the same trend. That way is risking the trend just continue to run away from you but we are playing the odds. I am not naive enough to say it is a valid idea to try and get more than the days range from retraces.

(thats why i do not like so called gurus in trading, they want you to just follow them which is more harmful than good in this game)

 

[capcom]

Could someone explain the Rule of 10?

Thank You

Gary

 

[bighog]

gary

in a nutshell..........the rule states that when you have had a 10 handle run in ES,,...expect a reversal.

That is valid in many cases, but as in last thursday case, the mkt had an intraday range of 18 1/4 handles run with retraces well below normal. SOLID one-way day.

 

[BoyBrutus]

Quote from my2cents:

The day is done.

Why I say the day is done is because the mkt. moves approx. 10 pts on any given day. That 10 points was realized in the first hour.

Sideways w/ possible upside into the close.

Attached is trading plan.

Somebody else who watches the rule of 10.

It is at these points I look for other confirming factors to look for a reversal trade.

But most important dont forget your stop.

 

[apex82]

Here are the levels for the day. The first 2 S zones are minor support. Which consists of a zone from 1424.75-1422.75 The main resistance is just above the market 1429-1431. Mondays before FOMC are typically range reduction days. That will be the plan for today. If the market can get down to minor support within first 15-30 min of open it increases odds that it will test and run up to first resistance, possibly double top and then get a possible retest of fridays low. If it does not test Minor S soon after the open and instead runs up to first resistance it severly decreases the odds of minor S holding and will expect a retest of Fridays low.

Good trading, be careful as most likely choppy today.

 

[volente_00]

B1S2 also has coined the rule of 6 as point to take profits intraday on a bigger move.

 

[volente_00]

Quote from bighog:

gary

in a nutshell..........the rule states that when you have had a 10 handle run in ES,,...expect a reversal.

That is valid in many cases, but as in last thursday case, the mkt had an intraday range of 18 1/4 handles run with retraces well below normal. SOLID one-way day.

There are days it does not work, but how many 18 points days do we get in a month ? The majority of swings will be between 6 and 10 intraday. You must always apply strict discipline when trading.