ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

romik · Jan 26, 2007

Quote from apex82:

Long is wrong? We just completed a lower level ewave with a washout retest that allows you get in with a 1pt stop or less!? com on man dont ruin it for other traders. The selling has a good probability of being exhausted. Nothing is guaranteed, but have to go with the odds and lowest risk.

I understand where you are coming from. On the other hand talking about exhaustion have you considered 3 failure upside breakout attempts or do you not consider that as deterrent as far as your current projection is concerned?

apex82 · Jan 26, 2007

Sure you can look at it many ways but what is the risk on the short vs the long right now... Having it washout in a support zone shows that this level means something to people. I wouldnt want to get short after that and have to have a 4-5 pt stop to see if I am right. There is a lot more stops above this market then below it right now.

romik · Jan 26, 2007

Quote from apex82:

Sure you can look at it many ways but what is the risk on the short vs the long right now...

That would depend on system stats that you or I are using, my reversal/stop is way above current levels, so I am not looking at it from your perspective if you know what I mean, I am looking at weekly right now, if there is no reversal today, then ES does look set for a pullback.

apex82 · Jan 26, 2007

Quote from romik:

That would depend on system stats that you or I are using, my reversal/stop is way above current levels, so I am not looking at it from your perspective if you know what I mean, I am looking at weekly right now, if there is no reversal today, then ES does look set for a pullback.

No disagreement there. I have been preaching that once those previous highs were taken out I am 100% bearish on a longer term basis.

romik · Jan 26, 2007

I posted a link in another thread to a video made by a TA ex pit trader & he is saying the same thing pretty much, I think people that understand TA, no matter what exact method is being used, on longer TFs it does not look optimistic for people long S&P & swing trading. I do acknowledge the fact that you are pretty awesome intraday, so I can not really argue or defend a bearish approach today.

apex82 · Jan 26, 2007

Quote from romik:

I posted a link in another thread to a video made by a TA ex pit trader & he is saying the same thing pretty much, I think people that understand TA, no matter what exact method is being used, on longer TFs it does not look optimistic for people long S&P & swing trading. I do acknowledge the fact that you are pretty awesome intraday, so I can not really argue or defend a bearish approach today.

Thanks, I appreciate that. I am not saying we are going straight up. If the es gets back up in the 1428-1430 area again that I would look at going short again. I am just saying 1pt or less risk with high odds is a good trade no matter the trend. You and I both know the whole world is short at this point intraday and a lot of stops above the market.

romik · Jan 26, 2007

Quote from apex82:

Thanks, I appreciate that. I am not saying we are going straight up. If the es gets back up in the 1428-1430 area again that I would look at going short again. I am just saying 1pt or less risk with high odds is a good trade no matter the trend. You and I both know the whole world is short at this point intraday and a lot of stops above the market.

Yes, I've seen plenty of squeezing in the past

romik · Jan 26, 2007

For me this would be a more acceptable ground to consider a long, but I would wait for the hourly bar to close to re-evaluate. Obviously risk factor might increase.

ryank · Jan 26, 2007

Quote from romik:

For me this would be a more acceptable ground to consider a long, but I would wait for the hourly bar to close to re-evaluate. Obviously risk factor might increase.

I think this is a good time for me to take my 1.5 handles and go drink a margarita.

apex82 · Jan 26, 2007

Quote from osorico:

Just my .02 ...

1:35pm EST
Long is wrong on YM and ES, for now. Use counter-strength to initiate or add to short intraday positions.

Good trading to all.

I dont want to gloat but you should seriously consider your position if I am on the other side. I dont have 90% average on all my trades for no reason...