ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from volente_00:

Gotta love that 10:30 reversal, T day theory and the rule of 10.

Vol - I apologize as these answers are buried in this thread somewhere, but can I ask for explanation of the T day theory and the rule of 10? You don't need to retype it, a link to a page in this thread will be great!

Thanks!
 
T day theory


If the indices are red on a T day, sometimes intraday they will revert to green. The odds become even higher when the negative is seen on a gap down or is seen before 10:30 est.







Rule of 10 is used to signal entries and exits. After moving 10 points, there is a high probability that fading the 10 point move will net 2 points or maybe as much as 5 on a 50% retracement or maybe more.
 
as one of those who has been stalking the vo for awhile now (joking, vo!), i can lend a hand.

t day refers to the fact that tuesdays and thursdays are up days, per his theory.

10:30 is a likely reversal time, but can be early or late by 15 min.s or so (this actually works, in my experience)

rule of 10 already explained

does that cover it?
 
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=958171&highlight=biaS#post958171



Rule of 2 and 10 are the same as rule of 20 and 100 on YM.



Quote from volente_00:

The Rules



1.KNOW YOUR DAY


When figuring out your battle plan for the day, I use this simple rule to help predict bias.

I am bullish on Tuesday's and Thursdays
I am bearish on Mon., Wed., and Friday.


This does not mean I will not short on T days or go long on MWF. It simply means I am more likely to short on MWF in trades or go long on T days trades.

Through the years, I came up with what I call T day theory.
All it really states is that if the indices are in the red on a T day, there is around a 80-85 % chance that sometime intraday they will get back to breakeven or slightly green.

Exceptions, FED meetings are on T days, they screw this theory up so I do not use it on days rate changes are announced.


On MWF I tend to short support and reshort at resistance on moves up. On T days I tend to go long at support and buy back on retracements of support.



Gaps above on MWF are often shorts plays for me where I look to cover when the gap fills.
Gaps below on T days are often long plays for me where I look to sell when the gap fills going up.








This concludes the first lesson.
 
World looks green today...

B1S2 is long

Apex is long

Pullback in Naz should give a good slingshot lift to the S&P in an advance, if ES breaks out of this daily bull flag.

"Techs see some Sun-shine
Yahoo and Sun Microsystems look ready to lead U.S. tech stocks higher, though broader markets will likely start steadily before weekly energy inventory data."


Today is Wednesday a good day for a trend day
 

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Why have a bias? Just let the day unfold and play your game. Believe me, in days, years past, having a bias cost me many a dollars not made because i expected the mkt to go one way and it refused to agree with my bias. Guess who wins?

FWIW..........Forget a bias, trade what you see not what you think.
 
Quote from bighog:

Why have a bias? Just let the day unfold and play your game. Believe me, in days, years past, having a bias cost me many a dollars not made because i expected the mkt to go one way and it refused to agree with my bias. Guess who wins?

FWIW..........Forget a bias, trade what you see not what you think.

Yes very true. It just gives me something to work with, I still have to see the setups and will be watching the +/-6 :D

It also means that I will give shorts much more room on a advancing market, but I should just be long in that case, right :confused:

It also allows me to set some targets if I see a setup.

Lets bring home the bacon!
 
Quote from bighog:

Why have a bias? Just let the day unfold and play your game. Believe me, in days, years past, having a bias cost me many a dollars not made because i expected the mkt to go one way and it refused to agree with my bias. Guess who wins?

FWIW..........Forget a bias, trade what you see not what you think.


If you don't how are you looking to trade on a particular day, if we have sold off 3 days in a row, and are sitting at a support level in an uptrending market on that 4th day you would not be long biased ?
 
OK, agreed, we all have our ways, cool. here is numbers for today (give or take a tick)

+6 line = 1438.75

0835 central , = 1437.25

-6 line = 1435.75

have a good trading day, ystrdy was good , never got to last fridays high at 1439.00 but went up to the 38. Had 2 trades all day. :)
 
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