ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from bighog:

" Back to what is usually normal...........after a early run like this mornings pop from approx 1440 down to 1432.25 what are you looking for? Right, a 50% retrace of that move once you saw price start a sideways tap dance. The bigs were done, now it was the local yocals. We tap danced around a little then indeed went up to 1436 , 1437 area....within the 50% retrace NORMAL area. Shorts were still thinking a second leg down. Well we went somewhat lower but it was sloppy compared to how sweet the morning worked.
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Glad to see someone else who trades 50% retracements.
 
YEP, the 50% retrace is a nice clue to read the mkts. On one-way days when the ES is strong a good clue to watch is a retrace. ok, if you get a leg up or down and see mkt go into consolidation as they reload the cannons and the locals get squared up you are looking for price to stay 50% or less retrace, any more and your mind tells you a possible reversal could be coming.

On particularly strong one-way days (read long or short) and you get a nice run then you book the profits and want back in you might not get a 50% retrace before the bigs push it again. in a case like that it is a good idea to take a "HOOK" (price moves up or below the previous high or low by one tick). that is always subjective because if you jump back in to early you might be caught in the retrace not completed yet. in that case your STOP would be if price indeed moves below the 50% area.

Myself, i hate to miss a second or third leg knowing the odds say the mkt is going to move in a NORMAL 3 legged one-way day. BUT, at the same time i dislike chasing a mkt without a normal retrace. chasing a mkt is a rookie mistake because the NORMAL retrace is not understood.

As i like to say an Army can not advance to far ahead of the supply of ammo and food. The Army must rest and regroup, rearm and then get ready for another advance. ... :cool:

ok, done for tonight. Thks
PS, apex, ER2 had a range today of 11 1/2, ES had a range of 9 3/4 give or take a tick. No big difference. Do not be confused by ER2 being a $100 a handle relative to es at 50 a handle. It looks good, but again the fills slippage will nail a trader sooner or later. ER2 is to thin for daytraders to jump in and out. FWIW
 
bighog....nice trading, elegant even.

I have a stupid question. Because the tick values you reference are +/- 6, are you using the Dow Jones Industrial Net Tick?

TIKI.Z in QT.
 
Quote from lilduckling:

is porgie still around?? I remember him stating he was getting 97% win ratio with a system his brother made... but i havent seen him here lately.
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He got booted from ET (again). Give him time and he will weasle his way back again.
 
By the way, today was a "step down day". Pretty easy to play, if recognized early.

One step down, then 2-3 hours sideways. The second step down comes usually after 2 pm. The follow up should be played like this:

Go long at the close or tomorrow early, and reverse at 10 am....
 
ER2 is hands down the best intraday futures trading instrument there is. You just have to know what your doing. It has the best fills, best range and trend and slippage is small. Put up a 15 minute er and es chart, tell me you dont see a divergence...... The er has been getting crushed the past few days while the ES finally got a bit of a move down today.
 
50% retracement rules. Fill the gap, trade in that direction. Pivot point confuence all the better. Today was perfect on the ym. Filled the gap to the downside and could not trade above 636 all day after news. finallay broke down to 600 retraced to 623 from 645. Good day, and I even had a couple of big losses.
 
Quote from apex82:

Here are the levels for today. Possible 5 wave move completing in the 1440 area. Any confirmed move below 1424 will probably result in another bear move.
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Got above the zone by a point or 2, but was expecting that due to the large amount of stops above the market in that area. Minimum projected target was 1432, which we got today. I love watching these moves unfold... amazes me everytime

..Here is the updated chart with the preceding days price action..
 

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