ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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b1....stating that losing would be impossible is overlooking the main factor once system is developed.......emotion......long or short term scenario..........it might not be possible for you to lose now over a longer time period but you did not get there overnight..if new traders start out with the trades you take now they could survive it....

Certainly not is the answer for me as far as larger account and wider stops required for long time frames....not true at all....i can get in most trades as near apex as any 1 min chart reader can....... with mechanical system no trader input allowed....all romik is doing is grabbing everything that looks like a turn...meaning he can't miss the real turn...that is all he is seeking...the real turn for the homerun or big points run....he has to take them all or he might pass up the big run.......he can't distinguish between the fakeout and the breakout with the short charts....and he has to jump for fear of getting left behind or getting in too late...very high emotional state of mind.... ...i see all real turns with extreme clarity...before they are completed..but I, prefer to wait for the signal which is moderately conservative..........the problem with a 50-60% system is that most can't withstand the emotional brutality involved...psyche rejects the pain and fear of losing over and over.......trying to get to the "homerun"...the high % systems will almost always not let you miss what you are seeking and won' t do the emotional damage in the process.....there is one thing that must be present for long term success with any system ....confidence....not in yourself....confidence in the system.... anyone can operate a no brainer 80% {80% takes a few years} system with a little training and concrete rules, and very few rules at that....just very few excellent time proven rules... very few traders can go the 40 50% route...i take your word that you can and do.......if this is gibberish for some, excuse the waste of your time......
 
Quote from elbow:

with mechanical system no trader input allowed....all romik is doing is grabbing everything that looks like a turn...meaning he can't miss the real turn...that is all he is seeking...the real turn for the homerun or big points run....he has to take them all or he might pass up the big run.......he can't distinguish between the fakeout and the breakout with the short charts....and he has to jump for fear of getting left behind or getting in too late...very high emotional state of mind....
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Exactly- which is why I mentioned that the human mind is all that can get in the way of Romy's trading.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

As far as discretionary, no. Discretionary is somebody trading without charts and simply acting on tips or things they hear in the news or things they feel. --example--"This new Cherry Pepsi is really good. I'm going to buy Pepsi stock." that's discretionary--My system is based upon indicators and price action. That is not discretionary.
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I guess we differ on our interpretation of "discretionary". To me, someone using charts, indicators, especially tape or price action, can also be considered discretionary, as there is quite a bit of subjectivity involved. I do not imply discretionary = hunch or pure intuition, as you seem to indicate.

To ask the question more clearly, does this system have explicit signals and rules that someone else, having these rules in hand, would typically get exactly the same entries and exits as you would? When you recommend to someone that "as long as you keep losses small, you will come out a winner", do you say this with the implication that this person would be mimicking your own trades as well, or instead that even with that individual's own decision making on entries, that he or she will still come out ahead?
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Exactly- which is why I mentioned that the human mind is all that can get in the way of Romy's trading.
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Romik has said he is trading with a spread betting firm (UK based I assume?). I looked at trying to do this trading the actual futures which changes things a bit. I casually looked at the ES over the last 10 days or so using 10min bars and 200sma crosses. If I'm following this right, I found at least 2 occasions where you would be up to 7 contracts and have to hold over night which means margin of $24,500 and a paper loss of around $2000 until the next day when the trade went in your favor and you could get out with a profit. I'm not saying this is good or bad, just that you need to have a good handle on your emotions and enough cash to get through the compounding storm until you get the run that makes you profitable.
 
Quote from illiquid:

I guess we differ on our interpretation of "discretionary". To me, someone using charts, indicators, especially tape or price action, can also be considered discretionary, as there is quite a bit of subjectivity involved. I do not imply discretionary = hunch or pure intuition, as you seem to indicate.

To ask the question more clearly, does this system have explicit signals and rules that someone else, having these rules in hand, would typically get exactly the same entries and exits as you would? When you recommend to someone that "as long as you keep losses small, you will come out a winner", do you say this with the implication that this person would be mimicking your own trades as well, or instead that even with that individual's own decision making on entries, that he or she will still come out ahead?
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Entries and exits are explicit as well as stops. It can also be used without the explicit rules. Either way, you stop yourself at or less than 2 percent of total liquid net worth which is the key.
 
Quote from ryank:

Romik has said he is trading with a spread betting firm (UK based I assume?). I looked at trying to do this trading the actual futures which changes things a bit. I casually looked at the ES over the last 10 days or so using 10min bars and 200sma crosses. If I'm following this right, I found at least 2 occasions where you would be up to 7 contracts and have to hold over night which means margin of $24,500 and a paper loss of around $2000 until the next day when the trade went in your favor and you could get out with a profit. I'm not saying this is good or bad, just that you need to have a good handle on your emotions and enough cash to get through the compounding storm until you get the run that makes you profitable.
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Eventually, the run is there and that fact, coupled with the minimal losses is the key to the whipsaw system.
 
Talk to everyone tomorrow or Wed. Hopefully George will have agreed by that time to do the realtime calls, so that we can see the 94% system results. :)
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Eventually, the run is there and that fact, coupled with the minimal losses is the key to the whipsaw system.
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I totally agree. I keep getting the words "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" dancing in my head though. :D
 
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