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ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
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Quote from john99:
Are you trying to tell me hedge funds and IB's pull or put in money at these key time points and that is what we are seeing done behind the seens?
Here's is a great article from LBR, she talks about time point reversals, not sure how old the article is, but I think its relevance has stood the test of time.
<a href="http://docs.google.com/View?docid=dgckstqh_0fczbmp">LBR article</a>
Always liked her work.
One of the worst trading rules ever is:
You can never go broke taking a profit.
nq is up all day why did i need to guess at times. AFTER 9 OCLOCK TURN.......why do i need to know news, volume, s/r........macd.....stoch.....rsi...... %r.......bollinger bands..when they all locked up overbought all day and very early at that........oscillators were good yesterday......today they were not good......this is trade with the trend ....trend is your friend .....WHY? BECAUSE IT IS A TREND DAY...SEEN EARLY....EASILY SEEN........EVEN PORGIE CAN SEE THAT! IT AIN'T ROCKET SCIENTIST...LOL
john99-
Basically, yes, from a mutual fund perspective.
Listen, think of the amount of money mutual funds control in the marketplace. According to the Insurance Information Institute there is $8.9 trillion in mutual funds as of 2005.
Nearly 60% of that is equity funds with $1 trillion of that being managed by the company I retired from.
Let's work backwards in time. Keep in mind I am not saying this is the only influence on the market but it is a large percentage of the action.
The mutual fund daily NAV's have to be reported to Dow Jones no later than 16:06 PM everyday. Otherwise they don't get posted in the WSJ or any other publication the next day which is a big no-no in the MF world.
In order to get those NAV values accounted for the portfolio positions have to be communicated to the fund accountants normally by the portfolio mangers no later than 15:45 PM.
The fund traders have to report to the portfolio managers no later than 15:40 PM. The majority of the traders don't want to screw with this process so they usually finish up by 15:30 PM and clean up any messes they may have on their hands from the last series of orders handed down from the fund managers at 15:00 hrs.
Prior to 15:00 hrs the fund managers are getting preliminary redemption/investment reports and are
trying to determine where best to place any excess dollars; stocks/bonds/cash. Normally the decision making process is finished prior to the bond close. Hence, final orders go out prior to the 15:00 PM deadline.
This is why the market goes dead the majority of the time in the last 45 minutes of trading, because 50% of the orders fall off the books.
Since 1984 a new game came into play with the advent of the computer program trading which now accounts for up to 60% of the daily trading today. As of the week of June 26, 2006 over 92% of the volume was programmed trades. This unnerved so many of the higher ups in the NYSE (remember a FAIR and orderly market now) that they changed the formula to calculate this statistic bringing this number back to a more palatable level.
So outside of the money flow from the IB's, MF's, Insurance Co.'s you have the hedge funds and individual IB's doing their own jiggering of the matrix which takes advantage of the times when the real cash is not on the table. Otherwise known as the last 1/2 hour jam job.
As for Linda's article, you bet it's stood the test of time because she reiterates ideas that I find in my commodities trading book published in 1947.
Draw your own conclusions.
just,
my2cents
Basically, yes, from a mutual fund perspective.
Listen, think of the amount of money mutual funds control in the marketplace. According to the Insurance Information Institute there is $8.9 trillion in mutual funds as of 2005.
Nearly 60% of that is equity funds with $1 trillion of that being managed by the company I retired from.
Let's work backwards in time. Keep in mind I am not saying this is the only influence on the market but it is a large percentage of the action.
The mutual fund daily NAV's have to be reported to Dow Jones no later than 16:06 PM everyday. Otherwise they don't get posted in the WSJ or any other publication the next day which is a big no-no in the MF world.
In order to get those NAV values accounted for the portfolio positions have to be communicated to the fund accountants normally by the portfolio mangers no later than 15:45 PM.
The fund traders have to report to the portfolio managers no later than 15:40 PM. The majority of the traders don't want to screw with this process so they usually finish up by 15:30 PM and clean up any messes they may have on their hands from the last series of orders handed down from the fund managers at 15:00 hrs.
Prior to 15:00 hrs the fund managers are getting preliminary redemption/investment reports and are
trying to determine where best to place any excess dollars; stocks/bonds/cash. Normally the decision making process is finished prior to the bond close. Hence, final orders go out prior to the 15:00 PM deadline.
This is why the market goes dead the majority of the time in the last 45 minutes of trading, because 50% of the orders fall off the books.
Since 1984 a new game came into play with the advent of the computer program trading which now accounts for up to 60% of the daily trading today. As of the week of June 26, 2006 over 92% of the volume was programmed trades. This unnerved so many of the higher ups in the NYSE (remember a FAIR and orderly market now) that they changed the formula to calculate this statistic bringing this number back to a more palatable level.
So outside of the money flow from the IB's, MF's, Insurance Co.'s you have the hedge funds and individual IB's doing their own jiggering of the matrix which takes advantage of the times when the real cash is not on the table. Otherwise known as the last 1/2 hour jam job.
As for Linda's article, you bet it's stood the test of time because she reiterates ideas that I find in my commodities trading book published in 1947.
Draw your own conclusions.
just,
my2cents
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