ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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It looks like a grail is about the same as a failure swing- is that correct ? Does anyone see a grail on the dailies ? Or would we have to see more upside with a lagging RSI ??:confused:
 
Quote from independenceair:

It looks like a grail is about the same as a failure swing- is that correct ? Does anyone see a grail on the dailies ? Or would we have to see more upside with a lagging RSI ??:confused:
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Yes, they are the same thing. B1 called it "Holy Grail" pattern and it kinda stuck after that. Long grail, short grail. IMHO it's not present on the daily chart, at least it's not obvious at all. I can't see an upwards thrust and no failure swing in RSI either.
 
Quote from independenceair:

I don't mean to be a pain in the neck ...but check $NYA and and let me know.:)
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I had a look, the pattern is not complete on daily, weekly looks bullish, probably not high odds at the moment based on an incomplete formation. IMHO.
 
Quote from romik:

There was a short grail pattern on 15, but I believe it happened after your PT's been reached, if it wasn't, would you have considered that as an obvious reversal signal. You did say on 15. If it wasn't what would you class an obvious one, could you please post an example of THE one.

My take on this is IF you haven't had reached your PT by the time that pattern occurred on 15, you would have waited for your reaction low (daily low) to have been taken out, as hourly was still bullish, so pullback - yes, reversal - perhaps not.
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Romik, it's a function of deferring to the reaction low first once a strong signal occurs which I will show on the chart here. I am reluctant to take the first short grails after such a strong long signal. 20 MA was just getting it's legs for an upmove also. I believe that the vast majority of TA traders are sing simple MA's. It needs time to fester as I have said before. I do pick and choose the grails to trade based upon past experience with time and their strength. Yesterday's bullish signal was extremely powerful I thought so I stayed with it.
 

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Quote from brightstone:

difficulty telling which grail to take..
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Take the ones you consider to be more obvious. You can take all of them of course as probes and just prepare to be stopped out more. It's a matter of taste.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

...You can take all of them of course as probes and just prepare to be stopped out more. It's a matter of taste.
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Bright, I understand it must be a bit frustrating at the moment. Basically before the move occurs I would take all grails. When you eventually manage to catch the move, try to stay in the trade until current reaction high/low is broken through. On tight range days this system might misfire or you might make 0-1 point here and there and some losses as well. On a trend day though you should be able to make a substantial return though.
 
Thank you
I am patiently awaiting the trend.



Quote from romik:

Bright, I understand it must be a bit frustrating at the moment. Basically before the move occurs I would take all grails. When you eventually manage to catch the move, try to stay in the trade until current reaction high/low is broken through. On tight range days this system might misfire or you might make 0-1 point here and there and some losses as well. On a trend day though you should be able to make a substantial return though.
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