ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
- Start date
- Status
I think reversing a position every time there is a reverse grail will provide a very good result on a 5 min TF. All grails have to be taken. A stop will be a variable depending on where the entry is in relation to current previous high/low point on that day and prior to an entry level obviously. Nothing else to be used apart from grails, no candle patterns, no MAs, no MACD, no Bollingers, etc. Only RSI and price chart.
How about that? I'll post an annotated chart later to clarify.
How about that? I'll post an annotated chart later to clarify.
Each trade that he makes will be evaluated to see if it ran the 4 or 6 points regardless of whether or not he makes a reversal trade . The reversal trade would then be evaluated the same way. What we are looking for is how many times does he pick a winner that ends up going that far.
Of course not, however they may give you and us an idea of what to expect on your 5 min trading analysis. Is this short on the 30 minute chart? If you would rather do it on the 30 minute chart I am fine with that. short at 1388.25 presents a 2 pt stop at 1390.25 and a 3 pt stop at 1391.25 --Profit targets are 1386.25 and 1382.25 . We'll call this your first trade in this experiment. We'll watch for the stops and targets or let us know. Thanks!
But that would contradict the reason for entry - RSI grails. So if he enters a long trade on a 5 min TF and after a while there is a short grail surely that should tell him to go short. I believe that to be a more profitable method intraday, as initial reason to be long does not take into consideration any longer TFs or anything else for that matter.
But what we want to see is how far his initial signals are generally running. This is ths starting point. If 70 percent are running to 4 pts before being stopped out, then the system by itself without the exit grails would be said to be positive expectancy. If a reverse grail comes up, that trade would have fallen into the 30 percent category and then the reversal trade would be evaluated. I am not saying he doesn't take the reverse grails, but we need to see how many of these run to the targets before being stopped out.
Quote from Buy1Sell2:
But what we want to see is how far his initial signals are generally running. This is ths starting point. If 70 percent are running to 4 pts before being stopped out, then the system by itself without the exit grails would be said to be positive expectancy. If a reverse grail comes up, that trade would have fallen into the 30 percent category and then the reversal trade would be evaluated. I am not saying he doesn't take the reverse grails, but we need to see how many of these run to the targets before being stopped out.
With all due respect it would not prove anything, as that approach would rely on luck (or opposite) of deciding which grails carry more weight. If he takes first long grail during the morning session and ignores the reverse grail he would be chancing it IMO. Maybe the second reverse grail is the one to take, but how would we know that unless a position is reversed? Know what I mean?
- Status