ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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your original description of grail signals did not have these testing conditions. i am papertrading to see if i am catching these signals.
 
Code: 
          entry       exit        pnl
short     1379.25     1381.00     -1.75
short     1380.50     1380.00      0.50
long      1385.50     1384.50     -1.00
short     1391.75     1385.50      6.25
short     1390.00     1391.50     -1.00

*all papertrades
 
Quote from m4a1:

your original description of grail signals did not have these testing conditions. i am papertrading to see if i am catching these signals.
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That's correct because my method relies more on trailing stops than targets.
 
Stats published by JohnBob:

"Here I am to the rescue!!

For 2004 and 2005, the average daily range for ES during RTH was about 11. If today's current range does not change, the average for 2006 is 12.3

JB"

12.3 average low to high that is. So when one is trying to establish an intraday risk/reward the above has to be taken into consideration in order to keep it realistic expectation wise. I would say working off a 5 min TF a 1:2 is more realistic than 1:3 (basing it on a 2 point average stop).
 
Quote from romik:

Stats published by JohnBob:

"Here I am to the rescue!!

For 2004 and 2005, the average daily range for ES during RTH was about 11. If today's current range does not change, the average for 2006 is 12.3

JB"

12.3 average low to high that is. So when one is trying to establish an intraday risk/reward the above has to be taken into consideration in order to keep it realistic expectation wise. I would say working off a 5 min TF a 1:2 is more realistic than 1:3 (basing it on a 2 point average stop).
More...

Would you agree intraday with 3 pt stop and 6 pt target on 5 minute?
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Would you agree intraday with 3 pt stop and 6 pt target on 5 minute?
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Assuming it is going to be a trend day 3 stop 6 target if fine, if we get an average range day (12.3 low to high) then you would have to be in pretty much near high/low point of a finished swing to benefit from 3 stop 6 target, the tighter the intraday range the less the expectancy of 3/6 working out. I can not give 1 answer to that question as it depends on what's happening at the time.
 
Quote from romik:

Assuming it is going to be a trend day 3 stop 6 target if fine, if we get an average range day (12.3 low to high) then you would have to be in pretty much near high/low point of a finished swing to benefit from 3 stop 6 target, the tighter the intraday range the less the expectancy of 3/6 working out. I can not give 1 answer to that question as it depends on what's happening at the time.
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Ok. Let's do this experiment. And this would be helpful to me and everyone else, because intraday, I really don't know. Let's ask m4a1 to post trades that he sees on the 5 minute chart. Then, we will apply a 2ptstop/4pt target, a 2pt stop/6pt target and a 3 ptstop/6 pt target and see over time where his expectancy may end up. We'll allow .5pts for slippage and commissions. This will be interesting. m4a1, will you help us?:)
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Ok. Let's do this experiment. And this would be helpful to me and everyone else, because intraday, I really don't know. Let's ask m4a1 to post trades that he sees on the 5 minute chart. Then, we will apply a 2ptstop/4pt target, a 2pt stop/6pt target and a 3 ptstop/6 pt target and see over time where his expectancy may end up. We'll allow .5pts for slippage and commissions. This will be interesting. m4a1, will you help us?:)
More...

Hold on there partner, you really have to elaborate a bit here. What happens if there is a reverse grail? Does he hold or fold or reverse?
 
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