ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from m4a1:

stop: 1396
target: 1375
based on 30 min

but i am thinking of closing it out at 1392 because it does look like it's turning around.

Based upon your study of the 30 minute chart, what is your expectancy percentage of a winner at 6 point stop and 15 point target?

 

[m4a1]

oh and 240 was looking bearish at the time too.

 

[m4a1]

what do you mean?

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Based upon your study of the 30 minute chart, what is your expectancy percentage of a winner at 6 point stop and 15 point target?

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from m4a1:

what do you mean?

In your study, what percentage of the time are you seeing winners of 6 point stops with 15 pt targets say over the past 6-12 months.

Edit: on the 30 minute chart

 

[romik]

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

In your study, what percentage of the time are you seeing winners of 6 point stops with 15 pt targets say over the past 6-12 months.

good question

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

In your study, what percentage of the time are you seeing winners of 6 point stops with 15 pt targets say over the past 6-12 months.

Edit: on the 30 minute chart

m4a1 , there is no right or wrong answer, I just want to point out this question as it is a very important one for you to ask yourself for future trades.

 

[m4a1]

you mean using grails as entries? well how to you code higher lows and lower peaks?

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

In your study, what percentage of the time are you seeing winners of 6 point stops with 15 pt targets say over the past 6-12 months.

Edit: on the 30 minute chart

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from m4a1:

you mean using grails as entries? well how to you code higher lows and lower peaks?

whatever signal you are using. How often percentagewise is that trade a winner? Does it involve holding overnight? Probably does which is fine. Is the 4 point stop and 8 point target a higher percentage? How much higher? Just food for thought. I think that these questions are integral to success and hopefully readers may benefit from me asking them as well.

 

[m4a1]

you're saying that even though risk reward is the same, it's still better to make them wider because of commissions?

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from m4a1:

you're saying that even though risk reward is the same, it's still better to make them wider because of commissions?

I don't think so unless the percentage of the wider one being a winner is equal or greater to the extent of covering commissions. No, all I am asking is how often in your reserch of say the last 6 to 12 months is the trade that you have on a winner? Or you could say,"How often do I have a 15 point winner on the 30 minute chart when I set my stop .75 above yesterday's high? Have you evaluated these questions? Since you are papertrading, perhaps you are evaluating in real time instead of backtesting. That's fine--what are the results currently?