ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from billp:

Err since you mentioned, can someone pls help with this question. Maybe when I know the answer to the below question, its easier to agree with you.Thks.

I've been trying to translate ES mini ATR (average true range) to stocks ATR equivalent. I read somewhere (if I remember correctly), that ES mini average daily ATR is around 10-20 points. So if I were to trade a stock that has an average daily ATR of $2, that means a 2 point stop in ES, will equate to 20 cents? Thanks.
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JohnBob provided averages for the last 2 years here:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1178923#post1178923

2 point stop represents ~16.2% of average value for 2006, therefore $0.324 on a stock with $2 average range. Hope that helps.
 
My 1320 secondary target is getting very close. I believe there will be a bit of a pullback at some point as the 240 and the hourly are initiating patterns that have in the past produced downside. I still hold 1360 as my longer term tertiary target.
 
I am still pretty much trading my own discretionary system and Spike's basic philosophy helped reduce the volatility. I have tested some of his ideas separately in a mechanical way with Tradestation using some pretty good indicators. As Spike indicated, they are NOT profitable, so be careful. He does have some superior indicators and trade logic.


Quote from billp:

Hi Martys,

Glad to hear that you are profitable and able to incorporate Spike's advise :)
Understand what you say but you still need to identify the trend before knowing not to go against it. Hmmm...I guess I should say 'I' instead of 'you'. Sorry, this is what happens when one has been working 14 hours stretch :D
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Yeah, understand what you mean. I too tried to look at standard and esoteric indicators (to get a feel/idea) and think of ideas/concepts to work with. Currently am drawing a blank. I don't expect to use standard indicators 'coz of the lag and fully expect that if I ever come out with one it will be kinda complex and custom made.

Not sure whether to give up on this pursuit and just focus on my primary strategy which is price and/or volume. Part of me tells me that there is something here for indicators (if only I can crack it) that is important for me to know. Also, I've spent the 2nd most time 'studying' indicators (in the past and presently, although in the past, I was learning it all wrong) as compared to other methods of trading. All the other areas of study be it tape, charts, delta etc have contributed to my learning, so its rather difficult for me to accept that 'indicators' have not contributed a single cent to my development. I'm not saying that they are not useful, only I have not had success with them yet. Sigh! Have to think long and hard whether to pursue 'indicators'.


Quote from martys:

I am still pretty much trading my own discretionary system and Spike's basic philosophy helped reduce the volatility. I have tested some of his ideas separately in a mechanical way with Tradestation using some pretty good indicators. As Spike indicated, they are NOT profitable, so be careful. He does have some superior indicators and trade logic.
More...
 
The only thing got me going is knowing Spike spent 15 years?? to craft his trading... why can't I do the same? We don't have to go this way or that way but we must "improve"... get better or get eliminated when eveyone else got better. :(

Quote from billp:

Yeah, understand what you mean. I too tried to look at standard and esoteric indicators (to get a feel/idea) and think of ideas/concepts to work with. Currently am drawing a blank. I don't expect to use standard indicators 'coz of the lag and fully expect that if I ever come out with one it will be kinda complex and custom made.

Not sure whether to give up on this pursuit and just focus on my primary strategy which is price and/or volume. Part of me tells me that there is something here for indicators (if only I can crack it) that is important for me to know. Also, I've spent the 2nd most time 'studying' indicators (in the past and presently, although in the past, I was learning it all wrong) as compared to other methods of trading. All the other areas of study be it tape, charts, delta etc have contributed to my learning, so its rather difficult for me to accept that 'indicators' have not contributed a single cent to my development. I'm not saying that they are not useful, only I have not had success with them yet. Sigh! Have to think long and hard whether to pursue 'indicators'.
More...
 
We certainly have to keep improving and not rest on our laurels. Agree.


Quote from martys:

The only thing got me going is knowing Spike spent 15 years?? to craft his trading... why can't I do the same? We don't have to go this way or that way but we must "improve"... get better or get eliminated when eveyone else got better. :(
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