ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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i guess you were also expecting 1314 to be a critical price, and when price bounced off of 1314 as soon as it was touched, you determined that it was going to be resistance?

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Just trying to stir up some conversation:)
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Quote from m4a1:

i guess you were also expecting 1314 to be a critical price, and when price bounced off of 1314 as soon as it was touched, you determined that it was going to be resistance?
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To be honest, all I did was look at the 3 minute chart and noticed that it looked like it would put in a double top. Right now, even though I still see the 240 as loading up for downside, it doesn't make sense--at least not yet, to be short.
 
i am looking at my 3 min ES chart at 1:06 and 1:09 EST where the high traded at 1414. where is the double top?

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

To be honest, all I did was look at the 3 minute chart and noticed that it looked like it would put in a double top. Right now, even though I still see the 240 as loading up for downside, it doesn't make sense--at least not yet, to be short.
More...
 
Well, I've read basically all of Spike500's posts on trading. Certainly opened up my eyes to a different perspective altogether.

Did anybody ever try to even remotely do what Spike is doing (of course adapt to your own individual style). I guess this goes out to especially Mechtrader41 and Romik as I see you guys had asked several questions to Spike in the past. Others are welcome to contribute also. BTW, what happened to Mechtrader41? He has not posted in ET since May06.

Spike500,
If you don't mind answering some questions. Just getting a feel of how to indentify a trend and strength of trend here.Thks.

1) In some of your previous charts, you seemed to have a volatility band (around your prices). Its volatility band right?

2) Ok, this may be a dumb question. No idea. You mentioned that some of the time frames you used were 60 minutes, 15 min and 3 minutes. I suspect that for each of the timeframe (say 15 minutes for example), you will have indicators that measure the long term and short term 'strength' itself. Am I right????? I will use an example of a moving average (yes, I know you don't use moving average but moving average is the clearest example to ask in this case).

Example :
15 minute chart--have a 5 sma (simple moving average) and 20 sma. So when the 5sma upward slope starts getting steeper as compared to the 20 sma, we know that the price has a greater chance now to start rising. This will help us to identify faster when a change in trend is occuring (besides just using multiple timeframe itself)

Thanks to all.
 
Quote from billp:

1) In some of your previous charts, you seemed to have a volatility band (around your prices). Its volatility band right?
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I don’t use volatility in any way. What you see on my charts has nothing to do with my system. I only post a price chart. If you see other indicators on it than it was done on purpose. Just to spread some smoke around my system to protect it. If people want to expose my complete system they will first have to break their head on several subtle misleading tips that are posted. In the end they will be fed up with searching without founding. That’s how I protect myself. My only purpose was to give some free advice about the general set-up of my system. The rest has to be done by each individual trader. Some people think I’m stupid and give away all I know. They are partially right, I am stupid, but I don’t give my secrets away.


Quote from billp:

2) Ok, this may be a dumb question. No idea. You mentioned that some of the time frames you used were 60 minutes, 15 min and 3 minutes. I suspect that for each of the timeframe (say 15 minutes for example), you will have indicators that measure the long term and short term 'strength' itself. Am I right????? I will use an example of a moving average (yes, I know you don't use moving average but moving average is the clearest example to ask in this case).

Example :
15 minute chart--have a 5 sma (simple moving average) and 20 sma. So when the 5sma upward slope starts getting steeper as compared to the 20 sma, we know that the price has a greater chance now to start rising. This will help us to identify faster when a change in trend is occuring (besides just using multiple timeframe itself)
More...
The trend defining is based on the 60 minutes chart only. The 60-minute chart generates all changes in trend. The other timeframes have predefined set-ups for which it has been proven statistically that they are very reliable. These set-ups will never change, not even if the trend changes. In that case another set-up will take over. Ma’s and all indicators that are based on MA are, to me, useless in day trading because of the lag. I think they are only useful in medium or long-term trading.
 
Spike500,

Thanks for your reply. I have no interest in exposing your system. Also, reading your posts I know that you would like to protect it and know that there's no way anybody just by reading your posts will know your system. I'm only more interested in understanding what a successful trader looks at and trying to find a strategy that suits me. So, not to worry (not that you need to ;). Anyway, I'm not even half as smart as you (this is a complement) and my programming sucks big time:(, so your system is safe :)

Thanks once again.


Quote from spike500:

I don’t use volatility in any way. What you see on my charts has nothing to do with my system. I only post a price chart. If you see other indicators on it than it was done on purpose. Just to spread some smoke around my system to protect it. If people want to expose my complete system they will first have to break their head on several subtle misleading tips that are posted. In the end they will be fed up with searching without founding. That’s how I protect myself. My only purpose was to give some free advice about the general set-up of my system. The rest has to be done by each individual trader. Some people think I’m stupid and give away all I know. They are partially right, I am stupid, but I don’t give my secrets away.



The trend defining is based on the 60 minutes chart only. The 60-minute chart generates all changes in trend. The other timeframes have predefined set-ups for which it has been proven statistically that they are very reliable. These set-ups will never change, not even if the trend changes. In that case another set-up will take over. Ma’s and all indicators that are based on MA are, to me, useless in day trading because of the lag. I think they are only useful in medium or long-term trading.
More...
 
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