ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from romik:

I'll have to have a look, it didn't go far I think, just resulted in longs expecting a reversal, closing their positions sharply. Later it still reversed and your BLD came into play.
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Oh, maybe I was thinking about something different, but I do remember that area 51 was hit a lot.
 
It is my view that the hourly chart will feature a short grail if it stays just the way it is now, with the bottom of the current RSI poking it's head below the previous low.
 
By the way, there is definitely a short grail now on 15 with the second peak!

I would prefer that we had cleared the sharp trough, but remember , money management is part of it too.

In fact you've histogram BRD all the way back to yesterday's peak.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

It will be very important to break 1304.25 for continuation of a short to get in full swing.
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1294.25 is very possible based on average lows over the last 5 days and continious support line of these lows

EDIT: sorry I meant 1300, then 1294.25
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

There are three ways to win with a short option as opposed to one way to win with a long option. Take a short call--let's say a 1300 ES Call. If the market moves down, you win, if the market does nothing, you win, if the market moves up , you will still win as long as the market doesn't move enough where your collected premium is negated. If you went long on that 1300 call, you only have one way to win and that's if the market moves in your favor. The allure of the long option is that it has limited downside potential. Unless you are way overextended, that allure is not very attractive as part of the speculator's approach. Time decay will kill you. Of course, if your buying insurance such as a farmer wanting to lock in his corn price, or a person hedging their stock portfolio. then that's different. But as a tool for a speculator to make consistent big gains--no way.
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I used to trade long only equity options. You can do it successful, but here's my point.

Before you do that you have to prove you can trade the underlying with proficiency. Long options when traded correctly are a way to leverage your stock picking abilities. However, I do think long puts, for example, are usually a lot better than shorting stocks. Of course, with long options there are lots of other option factors you have to take into account apart from the underlying analysis.

Never saw the sense in long options on futures though.
 
Quote from romik:

1294.25 is very possible based on average lows over the last 5 days and continious support line of these lows

EDIT: sorry I meant 1300, then 1294.25
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1294.25, I think correlates to roughly to 129.43 on the Spy, if so I may look to add to short position @ that level. Friday's employment numbers will be the key to this whole thing. The reaction to these figures will be propel this market either way. Dow is getting close to all time hi's once again but it looks like there has been some rotation into small cap and nasdaq in the recent run up.
 
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