ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
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Certainly the chart suggests downside here. As did the hourly chart with it's short grail at 3:30 AM EST. Stop above 1305.50 and to be trailed down above reaction highs as they occur. This is a trade to watch closely as the daily trend is up. We have had a Bearish MACD Histogram Divergence on the daily chart although at the moment, I view that as a minor class A divergence without RSI confirm. It's more likely to be a pullback and then an increased move upwards perhaps to 1360. If we get a short grail on daily charts, I would be interested in shorting for a longer term. However, certainly intraday this market could have been shorted at 1304 with the close stop mentioned earlier. I generally would have my stop at a couple of points above the reaction high and then trail it on down.
Appreciated, thanks. I do need this anticipated pullback to get out of my short at a scratch or make a bit on it, it wasn't well timed keeping in mind my max risk tolerance margin. I was estimating a pullback at the time of an earlier BRD in Hist, now we almost got a triple, OK weak A class, a weak triple sounds kinda reassuring.
There are two reasons that I don't believe it to be a strong divergence --so far anyway-- The peak is nearly the same height as the previous one(as you know I like to have quite a disparity between peaks)--and then the main reason which is no RSI confirm ie short grail. In fact the RSI peak is much higher than when the previous Histogram peak occurred. It may be tradeable, but it is not as high probability. In that case, I always defer to the recent reaction low and stay in my current position. As you know from this ES Journal, longs were taken and suggested in the 1230's and 1240's etc(twice) and so my look at the 1262.50 area is at better than breakeven.
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