ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Quick reminder: I am short term bullish, but long term bearish. I think that the recent correction we had is just a prelude to what will come and that wil be a very very large down move. We'll need the monthly chart to roll over along with the weekly for that move to happen.
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Long term bearish- is this Q4 2006 or from 2007 on?
 
Quote from sosa1974:

Long term bearish- is this Q4 2006 or from 2007 on?
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Hey Sosa, I believe he did mention September onwards previously, not certain though. Hope you are having a nice weekend, I just came back from an amateur quad racing tournament, lost again.
 
Quote from romik:

Hey Sosa, I believe he did mention September onwards previously, not certain though. Hope you are having a nice weekend, I just came back from an amateur quad racing tournament, lost again.
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I just got back from a Wedding reception!! Oh lord, trying to have to explain what I do was a headache. After a few rum and cokes it was A ok. Sell high buy back lower, a foreign concept to most. Thanks B1, I figured Q4 or Q1 2007. Romik, keep up the great short term trading, a true inspiration for short term future traders and me too.
 
Still looking at the 1262.50 area as the most recent reaction low here. Staying long for now. It will mean that I ignore the fluctuations until a divergence signal is given or my stop is hit.
 
Quote from martys:

Hi BB and B1S2,

The risk is always on the opposite side of the trend. Yes, you can "potentially" lose money going with the trend but you will "potentially" lose more money going against the trend. Yes, you can "potentially" make money going against the trend but you will "potentially" make more money going with the trend. There is no superstition here. No trading psychology BS... Those are only useful when I am losing... i.e. on the wrong side of the market. Go with the trend and get the hell away from where the risks are. As to how to do it, I am still learning. :(

Good trading,
William
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I think most of the time you want to be on the side of the trend. Although, I still think that at times countertrend reversals do provide good opportunities as well.

My ratio runs about 70-80% trend continuation and 20-30% trend reversals. You do have to be a bit more precise with trend reversal trades, although the reward definitely is worth it at times.

I personally believe you should trade both.
 
Quote from BoyBrutus:

William

The ability to evaluate under fire is the experience thats required. Reminds me of what I read about the civil war where they found young dead recruits who had reloaded there rifles 20 times without firing a single shot.

The real dangers are psychological and each step forward will expose these things you have never though could affect you from your childhood to parents and marriage. Each person is unique in this regard. Each quality that may be considered a positive in trading will also have a downside that must be realized and overcome. I have found meditation and self hypnosis has helped me alot. Some recommend yoga. Positive visualization of your actions(self hypnosis) in trading has also been a major benefit to me.

Trading in the zone was of some limited help although others seem to go on about it.

When in a short term trade I keep my finger on the 'close at market' button if ever a massive buy/sell spurt hits its automatic. I dont wait for a retracement or explanation of such an action that has just happened.

As London stated you have to embrace uncertainty, you don't know when a Merrill fat fingered mistake could happen or black swan or terrorist attack but most times the tape will give you advance warning. Also the need for certainty is why some fail at trading, waiting for to much confirmation especially when scalping.

System development is hard work, scalping is easy why can people not make some money scalping while working and developing on their bigger goals, I think its the need for certainty they cannot let go of their indicators or something visual that tells them change is happening.

I would also recommend to anybody to go from simulator to trading 1 contract. I traded a very large amount of contracts in my naive early days and let me tell you 1 contract now has more emotional burden. Soon as you start losing, back to the simulator, and so on until you build up your contracts. There is absolutely no reason to lose any large amount of money if you do the above.

I always felt that doing the above I would miss the big win that was probably going to happen today.

The usual reply to the above is that it doesn't feel real or thats the way I learn, trading a real large amount of contracts etc The usual macho bullshit male ego stuff that leads to vengeance trading and also account and self destruction.

On that happy note, hope this has been of help. jmho
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I think studying military history is a good thing for traders. We can learn a lot of relevant things there. It is no coincidence that often ex military turn out to be good traders. There are 2 critical aspects to trading: (1) analysis and (2) action. Studying military history is very helpful with (2), especially when you read about how soldiers coped with fear.

One of the difficult things is that it usually takes years to get anywhere and by the time you have found something worthwhile you probably have a history of painful mistakes. You then somehow have to overcome that pain and build self trust in what you are currently doing.

I lost half of my money in my first futures account before coming up with the process I now follow. That process of substantial forward testing has saved me a lot of money since then. Personally I find that simulating and actually trading the ES with real money is very similar from my own psychological stand point.

I totally agree that you need to increase one contract at a time and start with one contract after "graduating" from the simulator. You need to "graduate" from each level of performance. This also helps you build the self trust in your own decision making process. The low account equity to risk ratio also helps from a psychological point of view. The pain is less when the money is less meaningful to you as it is only a small proportion of your account size. When the money means a lot to you, that is when problems start to arise.
 
1300.50 seems to be battleground eh? The 3 and the 15 chart sure do suggest the potential of upside here, while the hourly does not, but the daily does.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

1300.50 seems to be battleground eh? The 3 and the 15 chart sure do suggest the potential of upside here, while the hourly does not, but the daily does.
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Long here. Not sure if this is going to work.
 
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