ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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I have to agree. yesterday was actually a bullish chart pattern and todays high was expected by my analysis. I just didn't expect it to take off in premarket like it did and not even retrace in the afternoon. I will keep an eye on it around 1500 for a possible pullback.
However we are in a uptrend channel on the 60min and tomorrows news could launch this to the upside giving a possible shorting opportunity to pullback to the lower trend line of the channel.
Just my 2 cents
I don't understand why everybody goes short.
The trend was clearly long at the opening, i went long at 1282.50 and still hold that position.
The only explanation for going short is trading contrarian.
The trend was clearly long at the opening, i went long at 1282.50 and still hold that position.
The only explanation for going short is trading contrarian.
Yes your absolutely correct. As I said I did have a long bias after yesterday. Its one thing to think it another to trade it when 10 points higher.
Even at 1400 and ES at 1283.50 only 1pnt higher from your entry I would have on a good day taken a long on the triple bottom but I wanted to hold due to the posted trade on this journal. 
Hi Spike, my short was not based on intraday, intraday I realised that I have no understanding of how to determine a trend in its early stages, so I pretty much stopped trading reversals and/or trend based, just scalping, which you do not approve of, but there is no other way for me intraday that would provide a higher win/loss ratio than my primary breakout system.
No, because yesterday i first went long and afterwards i went short.
Maybe to you it looked the same, but to me it was completely different.
The pricechart confirms today that both days were completely different.
In my opinion there is nothing wrong with scalping. By scalping your interacting with the market and therefore learning and as long as your slightly profitable then thats good. To me this game is one of survival, participating and learning and hopefully paying the bills. Keeping an open mind and learning when scalping is important.
I have had some success in defining a trend in statistical terms of what is a typical pullback at what stage in the trend to expect what. 3 steps forward 2 steps back. Try to account for volatility.
So when there is a probability at a point that this is a pullback, only prior to trend continuation I then look for other supporting evidence. When everything puts the odds in favor of continuation you have to play the odds. At this stage I am a Jack of all trades.
A trend line and moving average are great in hindsight and certainly usable by some to make consistant money.
Trend following also means you have pleanty of what would be considered late entries but the odds are at that stage in your favour.
Why does Spike use a 2 point stop?
Just my 2 cents and certainly no expert on the matter.
To save you the trouble I have attached the formula that is giving me excellent results.
I have had some success in defining a trend in statistical terms of what is a typical pullback at what stage in the trend to expect what. 3 steps forward 2 steps back. Try to account for volatility.
So when there is a probability at a point that this is a pullback, only prior to trend continuation I then look for other supporting evidence. When everything puts the odds in favor of continuation you have to play the odds. At this stage I am a Jack of all trades.
A trend line and moving average are great in hindsight and certainly usable by some to make consistant money.
Trend following also means you have pleanty of what would be considered late entries but the odds are at that stage in your favour.
Why does Spike use a 2 point stop?
Just my 2 cents and certainly no expert on the matter.
To save you the trouble I have attached the formula that is giving me excellent results.
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