ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Hi romik,

I'm not sure about their probability or accuracy. Their site talks about RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) that is an error measurement between a predicted path and the real market.

I believe every body is interested in making money. In this aspect I don't know about the DDF, but I've been using this system for the last months and made a killing.


Just for the record, I've sarted posting in a Journal
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=70418&perpage=6&pagenumber=1

Every day, the trades at the begining of the day, and at the results at the end of the day.

The results, only in the period I've posted where amazing.

The system was able to achieve.

574 Pts in the DJIA, 46 Pts, in the SP500, 115 PTS in the Nasdaq and 44 pts in the Nasdaq100.


Trading the eMinies, this was an income of u$s 8,379.4 from Jun 5 till yesterday , July 18th. per traded contract.

If you trade 1 contract every 5,000 u$s for marging purposes, you should have 20,000 u$s in your account. This is almost a 42 % gain in a month an a half.


With this money I was able to pay with no problem their low subscription fees.

The Sharpe of this system is 1.08, what I believe is really good.

The drawdowns, might be questionable, but overall, is the best system I've found. I might not go on posting their results, as I am evaluating a possible acquisition of the company.

Now, in this system trading framwork, what do you care about a 75% of accuracy. ? Can you show hard numbers on any other trading system that can be similar to the once I've shown. If so, please let me know, I might be interested in that system.

Have a nice trading day.





Quote from romik:

If their probability is within 75%, than there is no need to pay the subscription, but simply learn to trade something like a DDF system as Clayburg suggests that it is also 75% accurate. That way you would not be forking out subscription fees every year.
More...
 
Quote from dan05:

Hi romik,

I'm not sure about their probability or accuracy. Their site talks about RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) that is an error measurement between a predicted path and the real market.

I believe every body is interested in making money. In this aspect I don't know about the DDF, but I've been using this system for the last months and made a killing.


Just for the record, I've sarted posting in a Journal
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=70418&perpage=6&pagenumber=1

Every day, the trades at the begining of the day, and at the results at the end of the day.

The results, only in the period I've posted where amazing.

The system was able to achieve.

574 Pts in the DJIA, 46 Pts, in the SP500, 115 PTS in the Nasdaq and 44 pts in the Nasdaq100.


Trading the eMinies, this was an income of u$s 8,379.4 from Jun 5 till yesterday , July 18th. per traded contract.

If you trade 1 contract every 5,000 u$s for marging purposes, you should have 20,000 u$s in your account. This is almost a 42 % gain in a month an a half.


With this money I was able to pay with no problem their low subscription fees.

The Sharpe of this system is 1.08, what I believe is really good.

The drawdowns, might be questionable, but overall, is the best system I've found. I might not go on posting their results, as I am evaluating a possible acquisition of the company.

Now, in this system trading framwork, what do you care about a 75% of accuracy. ? Can you show hard numbers on any other trading system that can be similar to the once I've shown. If so, please let me know, I might be interested in that system.

Have a nice trading day.
More...

First of all, if you are considering buying this company and not advertising it (which I really have nothing against, trust me) I would not tell everybody how great the results are, that is just bad business practise if you want to buy them out. You don't want to be overbid, do you now?

Secondly, if you've found their system to be extremely profitable, than it's great, I am happy for you, I just wanted to point out that there are other strategies out there for which you do not need to pay subscription, but you do need to learn how to trade them. I wasn't suggesting DDF, I just mentioned to you what they claim their stats are.

I hope you understand that I was simply making a suggestion there.

All the best.
 
Hi romik,

Its Ok. I've found the Forum to be extreemly helpful with my due dilligence process with this trading system.

Still I have an MOU that fix a value, if certain variables where achieved, so I'm sure my bid will not be raised.

Regarding other systems, I really appreciate your suggestion. I'll try to check it and use the argument to lower my bid.

Thank you very much for your reply.

HANTD
 
You know, there's quite a bit of trading day left. I can see a scenario where we sell off a bit (1260-1258) and then have an afternoon try at 1270. Not a prediction, but I can see the possibility there. :)
 
Quote from dan05:

Hi romik,

Its Ok. I've found the Forum to be extreemly helpful with my due dilligence process with this trading system.

Still I have an MOU that fix a value, if certain variables where achieved, so I'm sure my bid will not be raised.

Regarding other systems, I really appreciate your suggestion. I'll try to check it and use the argument to lower my bid.

Thank you very much for your reply.

HANTD
More...

Hey, out of pure curiosity, what range do they show at the moment for ES (today). Thanks.
 
Quote from romik:

First of all, if you are considering buying this company and not advertising it (which I really have nothing against, trust me) I would not tell everybody how great the results are, that is just bad business practise if you want to buy them out. You don't want to be overbid, do you now?

Secondly, if you've found their system to be extremely profitable, than it's great, I am happy for you, I just wanted to point out that there are other strategies out there for which you do not need to pay subscription, but you do need to learn how to trade them. I wasn't suggesting DDF, I just mentioned to you what they claim their stats are.

I hope you understand that I was simply making a suggestion there.

All the best.
More...

Romik, what is DDF?
 
Hi romik,

Prediction for today was not very accurate. Here is the predicted chart that was displayed at 10:15 and then updated.

Trades are identified using the black line on that chart. No trades are executed before 10:15.

SP500
Date Type Target Gain Entry Time Exit Time Entry Value Exit Value P&L Cumm. P&L
07/19/2006 Long 10.87 10:15 10:25 1252.57 1249.93 -2.64 -2.64
07/19/2006 Short 5.8 10:25 12:10 1249.93 1254.52 -5.80 -8.44
07/19/2006 Long 4.13 12:10 13:05 1254.52 1256.06 1.54 -6.90
07/19/2006 Short 4.93 13:05 13:40 1256.06 1258.02 -1.96 -8.86
07/19/2006 Long 9.17 13:40 15:35 1258.02 1260.69 2.67 -6.19

5 trades, 2 winners, 3 loosers. Over all result -300 u$s per traded contract.

I have seen that when the market trends, the system has a hard time to adjust. This is generally driven by a big news, or announcement. (Today OIL + Bernanke). The system is able to find structure in the market and predicts accordingly.

As you may know, the result over months is what counts. Not a trade, not a day, not even a week.


Have a nice evening.











Quote from romik:

Hey, out of pure curiosity, what range do they show at the moment for ES (today). Thanks.
More...
 

Attachments

Quote from dan05:

Hi romik,

Prediction for today was not very accurate. Here is the predicted chart that was displayed at 10:15 and then updated.

Trades are identified using the black line on that chart. No trades are executed before 10:15.

SP500
Date Type Target Gain Entry Time Exit Time Entry Value Exit Value P&L Cumm. P&L
07/19/2006 Long 10.87 10:15 10:25 1252.57 1249.93 -2.64 -2.64
07/19/2006 Short 5.8 10:25 12:10 1249.93 1254.52 -5.80 -8.44
07/19/2006 Long 4.13 12:10 13:05 1254.52 1256.06 1.54 -6.90
07/19/2006 Short 4.93 13:05 13:40 1256.06 1258.02 -1.96 -8.86
07/19/2006 Long 9.17 13:40 15:35 1258.02 1260.69 2.67 -6.19

5 trades, 2 winners, 3 loosers. Over all result -300 u$s per traded contract.

I have seen that when the market trends, the system has a hard time to adjust. This is generally driven by a big news, or announcement. (Today OIL + Bernanke). The system is able to find structure in the market and predicts accordingly.

As you may know, the result over months is what counts. Not a trade, not a day, not even a week.


Have a nice evening.
More...

thanks for the info.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

You know, there's quite a bit of trading day left. I can see a scenario where we sell off a bit (1260-1258) and then have an afternoon try at 1270.

Not a prediction, but I can see the possibility there. :)
More...
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Interesting, Buy1sell2 ;
many probabilities [not predictions] come close., like 1269-70:cool:

May finally clear 50 dma after all these months,;
not a prediction, even though its had a habit of not doing that for months:p
 
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