ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from Buy1Sell2:

.................. As you may recall from earlier in the journal, I like to see the MA start smoothing a bit as another confirmation for reversal to be in order. ........................:)
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So in order to take now the divergencies BLDs into account you would like to see the MA flatten out a bit - we are so to say in the trending mode where divergencies are not so reliable ................???:D
 
Quote from hpeganz:

So in order to take now the divergencies BLDs into account you would like to see the MA flatten out a bit - we are so to say in the trending mode where divergencies are not so reliable ................???:D
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I would prefer that , yes. The MA doesn't have to be flat, just a little flatter than it was during the strong trend move and it may base for a bit. Of course, reversals can happen when the 20 period MA is at full tilt as well, but that's the way it goes. :)
 
Class B/hook in HIST and 6 higher lows in RSI vs lower lows in price on 15 min TF. I've seen this pattern before more than a couple of times and even though 20MA slope is pretty steep on hourly, it looks OK on daily. 20MA will flatten out during after hours trading and I expect a bounce.

B1, you are not considering a long here?
 
Quote from hpeganz:

Let´s asume you are short - there was the last reversal stop not hit -- would you remain short over night - maybe without stop ???
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Yes, I believe so. At the moment, there seems to be more potential of downside action when looking at the 240 minute chart. Everything is subject to change of course. The 240 has been negative since about noon on Friday with the BRD on RSI and Histogram. Just now, the market is not revealing upside on these charts. :)

By the way, you should only trade without a stop if you are not using high leverage. If using high leverage , then a stop is essential.
 
Quote from romik:

Class B/hook in HIST and 6 higher lows in RSI vs lower lows in price on 15 min TF. I've seen this pattern before more than a couple of times and even though 20MA slope is pretty steep on hourly, it looks OK on daily. 20MA will flatten out during after hours trading and I expect a bounce.

B1, you are not considering a long here?
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I don't think I can consider a long just yet. Daily chart and Weekly chart are in the "WC" . Although I do think there is more upside potential on the daily, we did already take out my low end target of 1290. I would tell you that it surprised me a bit to have the price run right to the exact target. I suspect that that will need another test at some point. Right now I am looking for the long signal on the 60 and 240, but just don't see one yet. I have been keeping the 15 up and running as well in hopes that I will see the long signal on one of these charts. At this juncture though, I have no trades in the short term account working, but still maintain the longer term shorts in the positional account.
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

I don't think I can consider a long just yet. Daily chart and Weekly chart are in the "WC" . Although I do think there is more upside potential on the daily, we did already take out my low end target of 1290. I would tell you that it surprised me a bit to have the price run right to the exact target. I suspect that that will need another test at some point. Right now I am looking for the long signal on the 60 and 240, but just don't see one yet. I have been keeping the 15 up and running as well in hopes that I will see the long signal on one of these charts. At this juncture though, I have no trades in the short term account working, but still maintain the longer term shorts in the positional account.
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WC? yes, that was a great call!
 
Still riding this reverse divergence. Short term target of 1250, if it gets there see how things look and possibly postiion for next target at the low of 1230ish.

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Yes, I meant to get back to you earlier about this as you had posted this idea some time back. Sorry for the delay. My view is that "reverse divergence" is actually "trend" . Thoughts?
 
I would agree. I look for reverse divergence as an indication that the trend will continue.

Since I mostly look to trade with the trend(if you believe in them) that is why I sometimes will use a reverse divergence as the beginning of a signal.

Another indication of the trend I like is the 55 day EMA which is the blue moving average on the chart. Since we have remained under or only slightly over it, I have remained bearish.

Yet, as we drop back into this congestion area(or should I say, if we do) I become more cautious since it will most likely present serious support.

-ae
 
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