ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
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Romik, do you mean that you are drawing the divergence lines on RSI and CCI from the troughs on 6/22 at 2PM EST? If so, that is too far back on an hourly chart in my view. There are other troughs in between. This would perhaps work on charts much longer than 60 minutes to go back that far. But longer term charts don't show a divergence from that time period. If the case is that you were looking just at the double bottom there on the chart I posted, then my view is that those that are close together like that have less probability and a bit of pain may have to be endured prior to fruition. However , if the formation there would have been a very sharp W, then there would be high probability.
Like every normal bear does, I've been hibernating waiting for this Fed day to arrive. Have not traded at all since last Thursday where my last cover was @ 1257. Not surprisingly they are still @ 1257. I feel rested and fresh, some time off and just watching the action helped me analyze where the potetial break points will be. Tommorrow should be interesting so lets see what happens...
Thanks B1, it was hard work and discipline not to trade for a week, but I really felt that we would chop with little range into June 29. And thats what happened, I just sat on the sidelines. I read thru Romiks area 51 analysis (interesting). Looks like you are straddled perfectly (long/short)!!
you are correct, i just checked another source chart and there is no BRD, in that case I think I have a problem with the algorithm in my software that calculates RSI, as I could see it yesterday and it is nowhere close to a BRD on another source today. Thanks for bringing it to my attention.
But if CCI was above +200 (which it has been on mine at the time) and started breaking +200 and +100 downwards, that was my main concern, as I find RSI works best with divergences and CCI is pretty good at seeing OB/OS when one looks at +200/-200 areas, for instance:
CCI (and price) has gone up passing +200 level and currently showing +245 and let's assume one is on an hourly TF, 2 hours later CCI goes down and closes @ +135 (gone through +200 upwards and again through +200 downwards) - that would be a sell indication in CCI IMO, obviously a lot stronger if backed by a BRD in RSI and HIST, but that's a perfect scenario, how often does that happen?
I am still very convinced in the long based on TA. Looking at the chart of the S&P500 daily we have the following:
1) Clear BLD in CCI (mid May-mid June);
2) Double bottom in RSI (mid May- mid June), which perhaps could be viewed as a BLD as well, as price has fallen further, but RSI performed second bottom @ 30 mark;
3) Clear BLD in HIST (again mid May - mid June);
4) Recent Triple bottom @ 1240 (index), not to mention a previous failed hammer with the low again just under 1240 area.
Perhaps others can comment on the above and would be nice to hear from traders who are bearish at the moment.
1) Clear BLD in CCI (mid May-mid June);
2) Double bottom in RSI (mid May- mid June), which perhaps could be viewed as a BLD as well, as price has fallen further, but RSI performed second bottom @ 30 mark;
3) Clear BLD in HIST (again mid May - mid June);
4) Recent Triple bottom @ 1240 (index), not to mention a previous failed hammer with the low again just under 1240 area.
Perhaps others can comment on the above and would be nice to hear from traders who are bearish at the moment.
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