ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
- Thread starter Buy1Sell2
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B1, excuse the delay in reply.
Right, CCI troughs, if I were you I would put 2 lines @ -200/+200 as they are the OB/OS levels, I believe you have a line going through -100 there. I understand what you saying in regards to time space you would like to see between troughs, but IMO that was a sufficient enough signal, as it was backed by the following:
1251 touched 4 times during last week and bounced, strong enough support;
break of 1251 did not result in a sell off that I expected, considering the above;
If you scroll RSI a little to the left on your hourly chart, you would be able to see a BLD;
BLD in HIST on hourly (minor) starting last Thursday and completing early morning today;
We still have a daily BLD, which is probably the biggest supporting factor for a long here.
As I explained yesterday, I had to close previous long as I did not have a clue where ES would be in 10 min from breaking 1251, I had to control risk.
I will most like not be holding this position through the FOMC, but I would expect no rate increase tomorrow and re-enter after the announcement.
Romik
Is this a typo Romik?
NO rate increase???
Rumors have it as high as .50 up...
"I will most like not be holding this position through the FOMC, but I would expect no rate increase tomorrow and re-enter after the announcement."
Monaco
EDIT: If this is the case and you are right, I want a seven
course meal!...
EDIT #2
I WOULD prepare you a seven course meal...! But then again,
the market would misinterperate the move and we would be eating hot dogs....
NO rate increase???
Rumors have it as high as .50 up...
"I will most like not be holding this position through the FOMC, but I would expect no rate increase tomorrow and re-enter after the announcement."
Monaco
EDIT: If this is the case and you are right, I want a seven
course meal!...
EDIT #2
I WOULD prepare you a seven course meal...! But then again,
the market would misinterperate the move and we would be eating hot dogs....
hey,I am not an economist, if they raise by .25 - it's priced in already, if .50 (unlikely) - oops a daisy, if they don't raise (I said I would expect, my expectations are not backed up by anything) - great!Quote from MONACO11:
Is this a typo Romik?
NO rate increase???
Rumors have it as high as .50 up...
"I will most like not be holding this position through the FOMC, but I would expect no rate increase tomorrow and re-enter after the announcement."
Monaco
EDIT: If this is the case and you are right, I want a seven
course meal!...
EDIT #2
I WOULD prepare you a seven course meal...! But then again,
the market would misinterperate the move and we would be eating hot dogs....
Here is a good tidbit of information. Some of it is no real surprise but some is kind of surprising.
More Rate Hikes Coming?
In a strange twist from just last month, USA Today reports that âa number of economistsâ expect the Fed to keep raising rates after it hikes its Fed funds rate to 5.25 percent this week.
The paper says that economists at UBS, Lehman Bros., and Bank of America think that the Fed will raise rates when it next meets in August and perhaps again before the year is out.
Youâll recall that in the beginning of June, there was widespread talk that the Fed would pause its rate cycle. But after several warning shots fired by Fed chair Ben Bernanke and co., talk has turned to how many rate hikes are left.
âThereâs enough of a pickup going on (in inflation) that itâs a challenge to the Fed,â says Ethan Harris, Lehman Bros. chief U.S. economist to the paper. Harris thinks the Fed will hike rates two more times after Thursdayâs decision.
According to a survey by the Bond Market Association taken from June 12-19, the median answer of 20 economists was that the Fed would raise rates once more by the end of 2006.
Some predicted that rates would go as high as 5.75 percent by the end of the year.
But thereâs also talk that the Fed will go too far, and will have to make a big reversal next year.
A Reuters poll of 70 economists says that the economy will slow so much that the Fed will be forced to slash interest rates in 2007.
I think everyone is expecting this rate hike so it won't be a surprise to anybody. What will move the market will be the next sentence. Either no more increases which will make the market go up. Or more increases to come which will kill the markets.
JMHO...
4re
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