ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

romik · Jun 13, 2006

BD on 15 min CCI now and almost there on 5 min histogram, not going to take that one today.

Sosa I got one word for you...WOOF!!! Thanks man.

B1, what's your view on the long side right now, I suppose you are awaiting the histogram to complete, but than again it might not do it this week though.

romik · Jun 13, 2006

Quote from BoyBrutus:

So Romiks in the UK, explains the interest in premarket.

Funny coincidence Sosa, Romik and myself all born 1974!

Had a good day today. Many are jumping up and down there systems are not working, to me the patterns still hold you just have to account for a much larger range before you act.

Most systems work OK, some work better than others, money/trade management is one thing people have difficulty following. Also, I must mention that a lot, I assume so, of people will struggle selling high and buying low and would rather do the opposite, I suppose it is human nature after all.

1 min charts are fantastic for seeing early signs of reversals.

El OchoCinco · Jun 13, 2006

Bo Yoder has a good book on futures trading which also covers position sizing and risk/reward ratios in positions. Quite eye opening and helpful...

Buy1Sell2 · Jun 13, 2006

Quote from romik:

B1, what's your view on the long side right now, I suppose you are awaiting the histogram to complete, but than again it might not do it this week though.

My view is that there will be a significant bounce. If I was trading max positions, then I would have been out about 40 points ago, but right now, I am not getting hurt badly. It would be dumb to be holding max position all the way down here at the moment. Yes , I am looking for that daily chart divergence. One thing to note, is that my normal 3 time frames have been Monthly, Weekly and Daily in the past.

BoyBrutus · Jun 13, 2006

Quote from romik:

Most systems work OK, some work better than others, money/trade management is one thing people have difficulty following. Also, I must mention that a lot, I assume so, of people will struggle selling high and buying low and would rather do the opposite, I suppose it is human nature after all.

1 min charts are fantastic for seeing early signs of reversals.

My comment on systems was a general comment from what I read on ET.

'people will struggle selling high and buying low' I thought the opposite was true. I wish I could do that, buy high and sell low, I watch 5 pt run ups knowing there are many points to go only to short the top for a couple of points. Im working on it

Buy1Sell2 · Jun 13, 2006

Quote from romik:

Most systems work OK, some work better than others, money/trade management is one thing people have difficulty following. Also, I must mention that a lot, I assume so, of people will struggle selling high and buying low and would rather do the opposite, I suppose it is human nature after all.

1 min charts are fantastic for seeing early signs of reversals.

Yes, I agree. I am beginning to think that a short term "day trader" may need only that chart and an ability to be very nimble due to fake outs.---and just trade the reversals.

El OchoCinco · Jun 13, 2006

I also found that when getting hit by many fake-outs, it canbe smoothed out by increasing time frame. I was doing mainly 1-minute charts for sometime but have moved to 5 minute charts to smooth out my entries a bit. I also looking into 15-minute charts for longer-term plays but the jury is still out on that one

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Yes, I agree. I am beginning to think that a short term "day trader" may need only that chart and an ability to be very nimble due to fake outs.---and just trade the reversals.

BoyBrutus · Jun 13, 2006

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Yes, I agree. I am beginning to think that a short term "day trader" may need only that chart and an ability to be very nimble due to fake outs.

Are fake outs a bad thing?

Before I position I ask have there been enough fake outs. Know you fake outs and you will know what they are trying to achieve. The bigger the fake the greater the expected move.

Also you have to see this

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=61514&perpage=6&pagenumber=304

romik · Jun 13, 2006

Quote from BoyBrutus:

Are fake outs a bad thing?

Before I position I ask have there been enough fake outs. Know you fake outs and you will know what they are trying to achieve. The bigger the fake the greater the expected move.

Also you have to see this

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=61514&perpage=6&pagenumber=304

I believe he's given back one day profits? I saw his PnL for one of the recent days and it was pretty much the same, but GREEN. It's all relative to your maximum risk, isn't it? To most that would seem a crazy one day loss, to the minority it is "pocket change" in a way.

Buy1Sell2 · Jun 13, 2006

Quote from optioncoach:

I also found that when getting hit by many fake-outs, it canbe smoothed out by increasing time frame. I was doing mainly 1-minute charts for sometime but have moved to 5 minute charts to smooth out my entries a bit. I also looking into 15-minute charts for longer-term plays but the jury is still out on that one

I have "discovered" --and comment on please--- that part of the reason that I have better success with the hourly charts in FX Futures is that there are more times of the day when the instrument is active. The ES seems to languish for the most part during most of the night whereas the Currency futures have more activity and thus have better sampling in the indicators.