I didnt mean to curse obviously but i was so pissed at this unstabilized market. besides very bad day today i would have never thought it would go up to 1330 thats bs
ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
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The Tuesday news may be priced in now or the market is set up for a heartbreak if Butt-Cake-ey brings them back to earth. I hope Bartiromo does not have any more Washington orgies over the weekend and talk to Fed chiefs....
I`m just curious...we see a breakout of weeklong congestion from a very coiled market, why do you expect this a false breakout? And extremly bullish marketinternals.... I `m long since wednesday in YM and monday in SPY calls cause this was a very clear bullish pattern, and I don`t expect this to be the end, you know my earlier posts, I expect monday a calmer tradingday, may be some slow retracement, if things go worse for the shorts the FED decision on tuesday will be another bounce...so a 1340-50 in ES is not from the table....I `m flat now in May calls, cause the time is getting short, taking my ~100%, still long in YM from 11441..
The last 2 breakouts this year lead to a ~ 2-3 day bounce, so the first date to short is from next tuesday-wednesday...
Look at marked breakouts...
The last 2 breakouts this year lead to a ~ 2-3 day bounce, so the first date to short is from next tuesday-wednesday...
Look at marked breakouts...
Hey u said u r holding 3 units short at an average of 1328 and u r gonna carry it over till monday obviously now so r u trading real or paper.
hey sosa man thx its just u know frustrating when u know every one is expecting a down trend and then the market just looks the opposit way. but thx for the consolation.
Trading with real money and carrying 3 units @ 1328. That is a no brainer for me. There is no way I'm locking in a one point loss on this one. Its far to optimal and I fought hard to get my avg price this hi. I was buffered by hedging with ym long today. I have covers in @ 1326/25 area and will let that stay out there. Dont let these type of days get to you, its just one day of many.
Alright folks:
So here is a chart that shows a simple system for trading the ES using Clayburg's DDF.
Trading the open is actually not a complex as one might think. You simply watch the first bar (or candle), put in your line and then quickly get ready to trade long or short (long above the high of the first candle or bar, short below). I would be looking for two ES points, and letting it go to B/E shy of that. Also I show a reversal trade. I have found that if you close that first trade at B/E, it pays to reverse (looking again to take 2 points).
Notice the vertical line through the 60 min candle. Clayburg suggests that you look at how the action is distributed within this opening 60 min window. Is the majority of the price action above the DDF line, or below? If above, then look to trade long, expecting price to move above (perhaps trending) the rest of the day. If below, just the reverse.
I have seen good professionals use this as the framework for both equities and futures index trading. I used it for a while myself (along with pivots).
Check it out. Make up your own mind.
Steve
By the way, in the interest of full disclosure I do not trade this system today. If you read Dr. Clayburg's books or comments, you will note that he has tested his DDF indicator, suggesting that it is about 75% accurate (indicator of future price movement). In contrast I use another system that provides setups with 80, 87, and 95% accuracy. Naturally I am going to go with that instead. I figure however that an intelligent person looking at this could add a filter or two and bump up the performance a bit.
So here is a chart that shows a simple system for trading the ES using Clayburg's DDF.
Trading the open is actually not a complex as one might think. You simply watch the first bar (or candle), put in your line and then quickly get ready to trade long or short (long above the high of the first candle or bar, short below). I would be looking for two ES points, and letting it go to B/E shy of that. Also I show a reversal trade. I have found that if you close that first trade at B/E, it pays to reverse (looking again to take 2 points).
Notice the vertical line through the 60 min candle. Clayburg suggests that you look at how the action is distributed within this opening 60 min window. Is the majority of the price action above the DDF line, or below? If above, then look to trade long, expecting price to move above (perhaps trending) the rest of the day. If below, just the reverse.
I have seen good professionals use this as the framework for both equities and futures index trading. I used it for a while myself (along with pivots).
Check it out. Make up your own mind.
Steve
By the way, in the interest of full disclosure I do not trade this system today. If you read Dr. Clayburg's books or comments, you will note that he has tested his DDF indicator, suggesting that it is about 75% accurate (indicator of future price movement). In contrast I use another system that provides setups with 80, 87, and 95% accuracy. Naturally I am going to go with that instead. I figure however that an intelligent person looking at this could add a filter or two and bump up the performance a bit.
What is the first candle in your example, the 6:00 AM candle?
What time frame is that chart?
Which is the 60 minute candle? 60 minutes after the first one?
Appreciate the chart, just trying to follow it since there are a lot of lines there.
EDIT: OK after looking closer I understand bit better. In the chart though most of the action was above the Horizontal line but it moved lower the first hour. How would you know to play it as a down day bad signal or just a short dip before the long-term trend. Are you saying you go long above the high of the first candle and hold for 2 points and if it moves lower you reverse and short for 2 points, then wait until it passes the Vertical line and trade in the direction of which side the most action occurred with respect to the horizontal line?
Did that make any sense lol?
What time frame is that chart?
Which is the 60 minute candle? 60 minutes after the first one?
Appreciate the chart, just trying to follow it since there are a lot of lines there.
EDIT: OK after looking closer I understand bit better. In the chart though most of the action was above the Horizontal line but it moved lower the first hour. How would you know to play it as a down day bad signal or just a short dip before the long-term trend. Are you saying you go long above the high of the first candle and hold for 2 points and if it moves lower you reverse and short for 2 points, then wait until it passes the Vertical line and trade in the direction of which side the most action occurred with respect to the horizontal line?
Did that make any sense lol?
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