ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

[steve46]

Quote from optioncoach:

Only got a point early in the day on ES but grabbed 27 points from different YM positions (1 contract positions as I get the feel for YM). Today was the rare day where you take the opening signal and then let it run all day long.... but who knew LOL...

It is precisely because you "don't know" that you (any trader interested in making a $) need to find a way to maintain a position based on the open.

Specifically, one needs to have an accurate way of anticipating where price "could go", what it would look like if price were going to "run all day long" and (conversely) what the early action would look like if price were going to move between previous test points (like the previous days' high, low, open and close).

I have posted "just a few" charts on this site, and I think they all have one thing in common, that is the DDF line (a line that bisects the opening bar or candle). There is a reason for that. It allows me a line in the sand from which I can project movement throughout the day. Interest parties can read about the DDF by checking out Dr. John Clayburg's comments (books, articles) Also some comments by Josh Lukeman in his book.

Good luck
Steve

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from stereo70:

BuySell: What parameters are you using for your RSI?

Standard settings. I never change these. Technicals today were very good. The operator (me) was not. I ignored 4 double bottom RSI's today. The next progression of my intraday development will be to take those signals and not let too much discretion get in there. Quite happy today with the stop placement, but may reign that in a bit tighter as we go. We'll see about that.

 

[El OchoCinco]

I have doubled the RSI parameter more or less to 30 from 14 standard and I get less whipsaws and more true overbought or oversold conditions in line with the other indicators. Try it out and backtest it...

 

[El OchoCinco]

I do not think the intent is to trade this way but merely to hedge a short moving against you so you can hold it longer and wait out the retracement to see if it does move down lower. If not you are mostly hedged and reduce your loss over the amount when you first put on the hedge.

If you were short 1 ES you would go long 10 YM more or less. It is not a perfect 1:1 correlation hedge but it is close. If the ES goes up one point, the YM will go up about 10 points more or less. Not perfect.

The commissions would be a part of the cost of the hedge but since it is a hedge it is just to reduce the risk on the short to hold out for the drop and hedge against a sudden large move against you.

I am paraphrasing what the other poster was describing so I will leave it to him for the details

Quote from romik:

I am still trying to figure this one out, Re: - YM vs ES.

1 point in YM=$5

1 point ES=$50

If you trade 1 lot on YM you would need it to gain 10 points to match ES's 1 point move. Also if you refer to range advantage on YM you would need to increase position size and what about commission increase? It's ~$3.70 on ES and ~$3 for YM, so to take advantage of more range on offer on YM you would have to increase your position like ~10 times more commission? Does it make sense? The only sexy thing about YM is narrow spread. Maybe I am just confused LOL

 

[romik]

Quote from steve46:

It is precisely because you "don't know" that you (any trader interested in making a $) need to find a way to maintain a position based on the open.

Specifically, one needs to have an accurate way of anticipating where price "could go", what it would look like if price were going to "run all day long" and (conversely) what the early action would look like if price were going to move between previous test points (like the previous days' high, low, open and close).

I have posted "just a few" charts on this site, and I think they all have one thing in common, that is the DDF line (a line that bisects the opening bar or candle). There is a reason for that. It allows me a line in the sand from which I can project movement throughout the day. Interest parties can read about the DDF by checking out Dr. John Clayburg's comments (books, articles) Also some comments by Josh Lukeman in his book.

Good luck
Steve

Sometimes there are much better ratios between the 2 sides of the DDF and they do not work out, though today it obviously was within the suggested 75% success rate.

 

[El OchoCinco]

Well congrats then on the 9 point move today! Nice trade (I assume you caught the whole move then...

What does DDF stand for?

Quote from steve46:

It is precisely because you "don't know" that you (any trader interested in making a $) need to find a way to maintain a position based on the open.

Specifically, one needs to have an accurate way of anticipating where price "could go", what it would look like if price were going to "run all day long" and (conversely) what the early action would look like if price were going to move between previous test points (like the previous days' high, low, open and close).

I have posted "just a few" charts on this site, and I think they all have one thing in common, that is the DDF line (a line that bisects the opening bar or candle). There is a reason for that. It allows me a line in the sand from which I can project movement throughout the day. Interest parties can read about the DDF by checking out Dr. John Clayburg's comments (books, articles) Also some comments by Josh Lukeman in his book.

Good luck
Steve

 

[BoyBrutus]

Quote from steve46:


I have posted "just a few" charts on this site, and I think they all have one thing in common, that is the DDF line (a line that bisects the opening bar or candle). There is a reason for that. It allows me a line in the sand from which I can project movement throughout the day. Interest parties can read about the DDF by checking out Dr. John Clayburg's comments (books, articles) Also some comments by Josh Lukeman in his book.

Good luck
Steve [/B]

Thanks Steve for the kick in the rear end. You end up getting so fancy in the analysis that you forget the basics. Soon you dont know up from down. So smart and yet so dumb.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Short here with 3 units at 1329.50 Triple bearish histogram divergence on 12 minute chart. Stop is at 1333.50

If not stopped out by 4:15 PM, I will hold these three short units over the weekend. This is the nature of my trading. I progressively add when position is against me, however, I never get overextended and cause myself misery.

 

[sosa1974]

Its a crutch pair, only used on trending days to minimize losses. And I dont trade it, I just hold it and it allows me to take more heat on my short entry. My avg. price on the ES is 1328 which I will swing into the aftermarket and Monday if need be. My system is designed to trade for non-trending markets which the markets in the last couple of years have been. The Hedge Ym was added to guard against breakouts. These days are atypical. To me any gain on a trend day is a victory. I am not able to catch trends so I defend against them. Just a money management tool.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Great speaking with everyone today-- I enjoy putting the trades out there and letting people critique. I also enjoy and pick up a lot of info from you guys. I think it's a good thing. Have a good weekend all and we'll see if Monday, I can actually follow my system with less bias type trading.