ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Quote from optioncoach:

I think porgie is rubbing off on me... I am starting to like the YM :D.

Applied my indicators and got 7 points on 1 contract. Found other consistent entry signals looking back and may start dabbling in it a bit. Looking to do 10 contracts a trade so 7 points would have been $350 and this was not a big move. Seems to have a little more defined moves than ES and spread is 1 to 2 points.

OUt of curiosity, has anyone else here applied their ES signals to YM charts and compared?
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I use Ym on trending days Long to hedge my shorts and they have a good corrleation with the ES. Especially on trend days. Almost one to one.
 
Have you determined a ratio of long YM to short ES? In general the ES seems to be the DOW divided by 10 (very quick and dirty scale). Of course it can be more or less on swings. Assuming you see a scale like that, do you go long 1o YM for every 1 ES you are short so that 10 points on the DOW up covers 1 long move on the ES? (assuming the ratio is close to accurate).
 
Quote from optioncoach:

Have you determined a ratio of long YM to short ES? In general the ES seems to be the DOW divided by 10 (very quick and dirty scale). Of course it can be more or less on swings. Assuming you see a scale like that, do you go long 1o YM for every 1 ES you are short so that 10 points on the DOW up covers 1 long move on the ES? (assuming the ratio is close to accurate).
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Yes exactly. On trend days this holds well. Days where the dow is weak S&P strong it can get flaky. Assuming a trend is in place if they break resistance or support depending on which side you trade, it locks in the maximum you can lose. Now non trend days this goes out the window.
 
Quote from optioncoach:

5, 10 and 15 minute charts on ES toppping over for short-term...
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Trendlines point to 1330 and I am sure I've seen this scenario before quite a few times...I am long for now, there was an inverted dark hammer on an hourly chart with NICE volume and that failed, therefore shorting this baby is risky at the mo IMHO
 
Quote from Buy1Sell2:

My word-I know it's only 1:06, but look at that hourly chart. That is certainly negative the way it stands now. Let's see what the 1:30 bar end brings.
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didn't end quite as bearish, but it was still bearish. Keeping the short trades in place. I would have added if it would have been a bit stronger.
 
The markets often give a false impression of reality. Today is a clear example of this phenomenon.
At the opening the trend was fairly strong long.
What was the analysis of many traders?
Well, most indicators were in, or almost in overbought zone; we were already up several points so no bottom to go long. Instead of trading with the trend many decided to wait till the trend would reverse, and some couldn’t even wait that long and went short, against the trend.

But if you look at the reality than you will notice the following:

In real long trends the biggest moves happen when most indicators are already in overbought zone. So where it looks as the overbought zone is dangerous, in reality the danger is for those who go short. So an overbought indicator that should warn for overbuying is interpreted by many as a signal to go short. That’s why many traders lose lots of money in the anticipation of the trend reversal; this reversal is an illusion, not a reality. It only becomes reality when the trend goes short.

If the trend is long, you should try to go long, because you never know how far the trend will go. If you wait to go short it is possible that you miss a big long and that the short doesn’t come at all. Always trade the actual situation, don’t trade on hypothetical scenarios.

Instead of running in front of the facts, or what you presume will become a fact, it s always better to run behind the facts. Because if you run behind the facts, the facts are facts , if you front run them they are not facts but expectations. Facts are always facts, but expectations can have two possible outcomes: a good one and a bad one. And for most it will be many times the bad outcome.



Just my thoughts, not the bible.
 
Quote from spike500:

The markets often give a false impression of reality. Today is a clear example of this phenomenon.
At the opening the trend was fairly strong long.
What was the analysis of many traders?
Well, most indicators were in, or almost in overbought zone; we were already up several points so no bottom to go long. Instead of trading with the trend many decided to wait till the trend would reverse, and some couldn’t even wait that long and went short, against the trend.

But if you look at the reality than you will notice the following:

In real long trends the biggest moves happen when most indicators are already in overbought zone. So where it looks as the overbought zone is dangerous, in reality the danger is for those who go short. So an overbought indicator that should warn for overbuying is interpreted by many as a signal to go short. That’s why many traders lose lots of money in the anticipation of the trend reversal; this reversal is an illusion, not a reality. It only becomes reality when the trend goes short.

If the trend is long, you should try to go long, because you never know how far the trend will go. If you wait to go short it is possible that you miss a big long and that the short doesn’t come at all. Always trade the actual situation, don’t trade on hypothetical scenarios.

Instead of running in front of the facts, or what you presume will become a fact, it s always better to run behind the facts. Because if you run behind the facts, the facts are facts , if you front run them they are not facts but expectations. Facts are always facts, but expectations can have two possible outcomes: a good one and a bad one. And for most it will be many times the bad outcome.



Just my thoughts, not the bible.
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Amen, great post. I had 1 winner 1 loser on xovers today, after the 2nd trade went sour I decided to look at other patterns, like that RDH that failed on the hourly, waited an hour and decided that long would be good @ 1325.50...
 
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