ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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Van Halen,
so I would say you are more in the scalpingcorner and less in the trendtradingcorner ~

Scaling out makes only sense by riding out trendtrades looking for max. profits X multiples of stopsize and a serious need for smoothing the equitycurve of trendsystems. Only. If you don`t expect/use a trend it`s of no use. And yes, in other approaches is all in, all out, probably the best or very difficult to enhance, not too easy with intuition, needs a lot of tests... So you are probably right in doing so.

I don`t know if this is similar to most traders, there are countless plays down the road...
 
I have an order in for some 1350 SPY calls on monday, this Beauty is definitely in breakoutmodus and i doubt the direction is down, sideways for ~ 6 weeks, and this pattern is quite bullish in my eyes...Cause even more stops ahead from shortplayers i expect a 30 point upmove next week. Hope not to make a fool out myself with such a prediction, but it`s my sight of market.
 

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Quote from spike500:

No, MA's are useless for 2 reasons; first of all everybody uses them so they become useless; and second they always come too late.

Optimal MA's need also constant optimization. The parameters for the optimal MA change constantly which makes them useless.


The first thing to do is to define the waves within the day.

Second thing is to create a system to ride these waves.

In a normal day you have between 1 and 3 waves. So the optimal system should give 1 to 3 signals.
From this point of view scalping is, to me at least, trading without having any clue what the market will do that day. Scalping is trying to take small parts of each wave, because you have no idea about the direction and/or the size of the wave.
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Yes, I do not know where the market is heading tomorrow and how large the swing is going to be, but that's not to say that I can't pull money out of the market scalping consistently. Come on man, ~3% ROI a day is a fantastic return and unlike large swing trades I have a much clearer objective WHEN to get out of the trade. If you remember I posted my returns in another thread 'is 1% a day consistently possible...' as at that time I have not actually been trading for a long time, the results were somewhat 'premature', though now the picture is more clear and it is averaging 3% a day ROI, doing scalping trades and sometimes these trades offer a lot more than 2 points.

But because I would like to consider myself an intellectual person, I do strive to better myself, I do want to know what I believe you know after how many years?
 
Quote from mechtrader41:

I have an order in for some 1350 SPY calls on monday, this Beauty is definitely in breakoutmodus and i doubt the direction is down, sideways for ~ 6 weeks, and this pattern is quite bullish in my eyes...Cause even more stops ahead from shortplayers i expect a 30 point upmove next week. Hope not to make a fool out myself with such a prediction, but it`s my sight of market.
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Maybe I am misreading the chart, but it appears that the trendstrength from your chart is weakening. What are you seeing here that I am not?
 
Well I got to greedy. I put an agressive limit order above the ask to short because I was trying to be cute and get in on any pullback but overall was going lower. Well it never hit and just kept moving lower. I think because I made some points in the opening I was trying to be too cute for the short and it ran down away from me lol. Oh well... being right means nothing if you never get filled.

Also I was going out for the day and after a short period of time I had to leave near 11:30 so I did not bother trying to get in. When I came back I saw the ES did drop a few points but had a last minute rally back to 1319 or so. Did you hold any longs to the close?


Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Where did this trade end up for you coach?
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putting money in the bank after few points seen early in the trade being called flawed logic and final answer is because of flawed system.......not final answer.........scaling out with point targets is the smart trading choice..........scaling in is not........very not.......high % being anything over 70% which is not a challenge if u want it bad enough...coin flipping is about 50% think ab0ut it............my personal opinion ..the answer is to have a high%dependable system and know when the edge is present and what it is the edge value at the moment...already determined entry based on picture we see RIGHT NOW ...PUT THE PICTURE ON THE WALL IN FRONT OF YOU MAKING IT BECOME THE PICTURE YOU ARE WAITING FOR....the edge value is sometimes same sometimes not the same.........but always the edge ...THE EDGE IS YOUR PICTURE WHICH HAS GOTTEN YOUR CONFIDENCE IN IT SO HIGH THAT YOU CAN'T MISS IT BECAUSE YOU ARE WAITING TO SEE IT.....the edge which is required for system outperforming average trader's system performance....... average menaing no edge........or less.........it is not learning the million bits of market and trading information that is critical to our success it is the unlearning of the million bits of information that is critical to our success..........porgie original .......if u succeed emini trading u will know thiis comes true..........
 
Quote from porgie:

putting money in the bank after few points seen early in the trade being called flawed logic and final answer is because of flawed system.....
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That would be a flaw in your system George, not mine. My system's objective is to get 1-3 points out of 1 trade, how is that flawed logic?
 
@ B1S2,
a very low Trendstrength leads normally to the next larger move/breakout soon, but this defines only volatility not direction, I look on daily ranges too, friday was a relativ small range of 0.8 the average range/last 5 days, so a trendday is quite possible the next tradingday, or vice versa, after a large daily range a smaller zigzag day is more probable.

To go again to L. Raschke (should not be any advertisment, I simply guess I learned a lot from her.....) she defines "breakoutmodus" if you have a low ADX on ~ 120 min chart. Did not look on 120 min yet but on 60 min we have an ADX(14) of 11.77, a very low number, or simply look on priceaction, if there is congestion/contraction over some time, then is expansion not far. Cause the cyclic behavior of volatility, a larger move is near, you have the choice about the direction...Whatever the direction would be, the size of the next move should be reasonable.

greetings, Michael
 
Depending on crude futures, I will be Long tomorrow between 9:00-10:00am with a 2-3 point stop with 1/2 usual position size and another 1/2 will be allocated to scalping trades (if any), if you spot a WRB on 15 min - you know I'll be in on that one for sure :cool:

IMO bulls will try to take out 1324.75 and I see this happening either tomorrow or day after.
 
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