Tuesday is far more difficult to predict, but i got a red sign to trade breakouts/trends tomorrow, with less % i would guess they take the stops at ~ 1310-11 tomorrow, expect another rangeday with higher low and higher high, but i realized we entering earningsaison, means more randomness, so i want not get nailed on this...the highest prob. of another widerange and/or trendday would be on wednesday (if tuesday turns out to be a rangeday...) and again this is a lower % prediction...a selloff tomorrow is quite possible but more likely on wednesday, thats what my volatilitycycle is telling me...
ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)
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b1b2...............hope u have a fine trading career...........don't mind if it takes a few years..........what would you rather watch for 5/6 hours? 30/12 bars per hour or 4 or 2?.....the mind asssimilates what the eyes see...............4and/ or 2.........build ur system on them...........................whether point targets are 10 or 30 YM....ES NQ have their own unique idiosynchrasies......... .....lot of work ahead for you ............be one of the rare ones who completes the journey to success...........
Hello, Tomorrow...no econ data, Alcoa posted good results but crude is holding well while headlines are screaming of shortages to come for gasoline- there's something about storage maintenance that might affect prices even further especially in the eastern part of the country...so I predict a cautious rally that likely won't be sustainable unless the market looks past two more rate hikes...but then there's wednesday. Just my two cents worth and i likely missed a pile of good information somewhere. Everyone have an excellent trading day tomorrow
Quote from independenceair:
Hello, Tomorrow...no econ data, Alcoa posted good results but crude is holding well while headlines are screaming of shortages to come for gasoline- there's something about storage maintenance that might affect prices even further especially in the eastern part of the country...so I predict a cautious rally that likely won't be sustainable unless the market looks past two more rate hikes...but then there's wednesday. Just my two cents worth and i likely missed a pile of good information somewhere. Everyone have an excellent trading day tomorrow
What is your long term view?
Hi,
@romik
Cause i trade mostly a mechanical openrangebreakoutsystem, i did a lot of research under which conditions the % of a larger and preferable of course a trendday is the highest. So for me it makes no sense to trade if the stats are not showing an excellent risk/reward for my style. Taking an openrangebreakout yesterday was a loser, 2 times, long and short, and i was quite sure about in advance...So a rough prediction of the following day, made from stats, is part of my system. I take sometimes other trades too, but I´m a trendtrader and want have the probs on my side, and the probs aren`t if my stats say high % of rangeday. Nothing works always and trading is a matter of probabilities but in the long run this means higher % win and avgtrade for me. Earlier i often lost by get whipsawed trying to catch the Bigmove i was waiting for. I don`t care anymore about missed trades, i look at the probabilities. If thinking of a coming larger move i can also scale in with small option positions, less $$$, but less stress and risk.
Michael
@romik
Cause i trade mostly a mechanical openrangebreakoutsystem, i did a lot of research under which conditions the % of a larger and preferable of course a trendday is the highest. So for me it makes no sense to trade if the stats are not showing an excellent risk/reward for my style. Taking an openrangebreakout yesterday was a loser, 2 times, long and short, and i was quite sure about in advance...So a rough prediction of the following day, made from stats, is part of my system. I take sometimes other trades too, but I´m a trendtrader and want have the probs on my side, and the probs aren`t if my stats say high % of rangeday. Nothing works always and trading is a matter of probabilities but in the long run this means higher % win and avgtrade for me. Earlier i often lost by get whipsawed trying to catch the Bigmove i was waiting for. I don`t care anymore about missed trades, i look at the probabilities. If thinking of a coming larger move i can also scale in with small option positions, less $$$, but less stress and risk.
Michael
Observing immediate price action will however determine what is really happening.
don`t agree, you entering a trade cause you see something, may be a beginning trend, but may be only a small random move or fake in one direction, you will see the outcome only later not yet. So yesterday you had seen a break of the LOD, that was the immediate price action to observe, but i was sure with high % this will work out only marginal and will reverse very soon. An observation of a priceaction means not to much, cause the further developement depends on the right conditions. So a breakout of the first hour or LOD or HOD can be a directional or an antidirectional(fading) signal, depends on the conditions, the pure observation of immediate priceaction don`t help to much, may be someone can master it by beeing very fast with getting in/out without losing to much by not beeing right, i`m not belonging to this kind of species....
don`t agree, you entering a trade cause you see something, may be a beginning trend, but may be only a small random move or fake in one direction, you will see the outcome only later not yet. So yesterday you had seen a break of the LOD, that was the immediate price action to observe, but i was sure with high % this will work out only marginal and will reverse very soon. An observation of a priceaction means not to much, cause the further developement depends on the right conditions. So a breakout of the first hour or LOD or HOD can be a directional or an antidirectional(fading) signal, depends on the conditions, the pure observation of immediate priceaction don`t help to much, may be someone can master it by beeing very fast with getting in/out without losing to much by not beeing right, i`m not belonging to this kind of species....
I understand your view, I suppose I am still a 'trigger happy' kind of trader, my primary system is based on gaining a relatively small advantage in a faster pace market. I generally look to pull 1.5-2 points out of a trade based on 3% risk.
In the process of getting ready to trade real money I was unable to come up with a more reliable system to trade futures. Systems like yours depend (probably a lot) on their ability to identify OB/OS levels, otherwise the potential risk/reward ratio is not sexy enough. Trading futures, as we all know, is one of the riskiest instruments available, unless you only allow 0.05% (or whatever) risk factor, but personally, (at this moment in time) I would rather employ the system of following immediate mini trend following the pressure created either by the buyers or sellers at any given time, fake or not fake in that case depends mostly on one's ability to understand immediate price action alongside chart analyses and not forgetting the reaction of the markets to other external data.
However, I do realise that this is not a great system yet, that is why I try to work on my secondary systems, which will hopefully assist in identifying OB/OS levels. That's why I am here, trying to give and take sort of speak.
All the best.
EDIT: In one of the previous posts I posted one of my primary indicators - a WRB. If your charting software does allow to back fill, I do recommend checking out morning session WRBs. You will see what I am talking about. They have to be used in conjunction with T&S.
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