ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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I expect a rangeday, but looks more weak as i thougth, the best would be they manage it up to 1309.5 -1311 to shake out most shorts from friday and fake in new longs, overall trend is short, such a large downbar on daily means normaly more down the next days, but not necessarily today and not likely. I probably don`t trade today, don`t like rangeplay and mondays, don`t expect another large selloff but lot of fakes and poor trends.

:D
 
Quote from mechtrader41:

I expect a rangeday, but looks more weak as i thougth, the best would be they manage it up to 1309.5 -1311 to shake out most shorts from friday and fake in new longs, overall trend is short, such a large downbar on daily means normaly more down the next days, but not necessarily today and not likely. I probably don`t trade today, don`t like rangeplay and mondays, don`t expect another large selloff but lot of fakes and poor trends.

:D
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Trends gave a short with strenght X, subsystem generated sellsignal at 1306.50.
Stop is at entry. Losses are already impossible, profit should come after we break the low of today. Could be a short of several hours, but now is too soon to have enouigh certainty.
 
Quote from mechtrader41:

I expect a rangeday, but looks more weak as i thougth, the best would be they manage it up to 1309.5 -1311 to shake out most shorts from friday and fake in new longs, overall trend is short, such a large downbar on daily means normaly more down the next days, but not necessarily today and not likely. I probably don`t trade today, don`t like rangeplay and mondays, don`t expect another large selloff but lot of fakes and poor trends.

:D
More...

Don't give up on today just yet. The ES is taking some time to consolidate the strong down. Doesn't mean the continuation of the move is necessarily far off. Hourlies certainly have upside potential, but daily and weekly are clearly down. A bounce(even a small one) today would be expected prior to more downside. ES is a regression to the mean market more than perhaps any other market.
 
When talking about systems, mine told me not to play any trend/breakoutplay today cause the widerange Bar on friday, by testing i found a wide-rangebar before producing a constant negative equity in a openrangebreakoutsystem, seems to be a bad volatilitycondition for larger trends, its more likely to be successful by fading breakouts today, but that`s not my style.
 
Quote from mechtrader41:

When talking about systems, mine told me not to play any trend/breakoutplay today cause the widerange Bar on friday, by testing i found a wide-rangebar before producing a constant negative equity in a openrangebreakoutsystem, seems to be a bad volatilitycondition for larger trends, its more likely to be successful by fading breakouts today, but that`s not my style.
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We may be talking about the same phenomenom and that is a general need to conslidate and regress to the mean in ES. Had this been the Soybean market we would have been at 1250 already.--I mean 1254 (50 cent limit in Beans)
 
especially the ES is made to fake the most possible people out of market, so if you ask what marketaction would cause the most possible pain to the amateurs, you ending probably up with quite good predictions.... the monday thing is made on personal observation, i found mondays subjectively mostly rangebound and found by research having the narrowest range of the day of week since ~18months and more, so i stay out until conditions change, it`s a matter of stats too. And WideRange Bar before >> high prob. of range.
 
Plus a nice hourly Bullish divergence with RSI overnight and continuing this morning with the noticeably higher RSI trough. I will wait until it looks the consolidation is over to trade short today or tomorrow. MACD well below zero and turning up strongly overnight.
 
If you think you are good in reversals or catching an early move, they go to work out the fakeout shakeout thing, best would be they take out the fridays afternoon high at 1309, that could be a nice short, especially by large bar up with highest volume of the last 1-2 hours(3-5 min) and TICK ~1000-1200....i would think there are a lot of stops, me i know the play but feel quite stressed by standing in front of a fast train. And of course it does not work always...
 
Quote from mechtrader41:

If you think you are good in reversals or catching an early move, they go to work out the fakeout shakeout thing, best would be they take out the fridays afternoon high at 1309, that could be a nice short, especially by large bar up with highest volume of the last 1-2 hours(3-5 min) and TICK ~1000-1200....i would think there are a lot of stops, me i know the play but feel quite stressed by standing in front of a fast train. And of course it does not work always...
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I am not good intraday yet, but I have the distinct feeling that reversals offer he best potential when you catch them and they lead to a new oposite trend. What I normally do is "try" trades until one takes--all the while increasing the size of the trade.
 
3 minute chart certainly has a bearish tilt to it right here with triple RSI top and triple failure swing of RSI. In addition, the Histogram is on a lower peak now. The trouble is that the 60 is still showing upside strength and the 12 minute has not totally weakened yet. A short here would be tenuous, but a tight stop with small size on the trade would not kill someone's account--with an eye to increase size on next trade.
 
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