ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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That`s B1S2` Journal, i hope it doesn`t mind to much to discuss other things on weekend now, this should be a last curious question.

@Spike (Mr. Reference...)

I try to resume your methods after reading quite a lot of your posts. Generally spoken you look for a trend and enter at some kind of pullback ( what i think to be the only real edge beneath some breakoutstuff...)?! You define the strength of Trend in some way but not with any public indicators but your very own. I just guess, you take smaller pullbacks/retracements if there is a strong trend and widther targets(?) and you wait for larger retracements and smaller targets(?) if trend is not so strong....?

Defining trendstrength is a challenge, i guess further you look at different timeframes and math up the trends, the 1 million $ question is of course, how define a trend: Slope, angle of linearregression, just the pricediff in a given time... me i tried some indicator with counting the breakouts over/under standartdeviation leaving a lot of marketnoise outside. I can not expect a complete answer, but may be it`s possible to give some more little hints....

regards, Michael

:confused:
 
i kind of had in mind trading 1 chart on 1 emini such as ym.........and never changing the 1 system......also 1 time frame............i am told that it is possible to be very successful with the above ...........also i too think that external info such as news is not necessary, yet i can't seem to wean myself from it........anticipation and mind bias is my worst enemy.........too much thinking hurts results so i try to only follow the lines........as they follow the price........i was thinking turning the lagging lines into leading lines........is that a useless pursuit? all advice appreciated...........
 
also i would like to know how many percentage wise succeed in this business......short term emini trading.......5 hours per day seems like a long time to stare at the computer monitor........
 
Quote from mechtrader41:

That`s B1S2` Journal, i hope it doesn`t mind to much to discuss other things on weekend now, this should be a last curious question.

@Spike (Mr. Reference...)

I try to resume your methods after reading quite a lot of your posts. Generally spoken you look for a trend and enter at some kind of pullback ( what i think to be the only real edge beneath some breakoutstuff...)?! You define the strength of Trend in some way but not with any public indicators but your very own. I just guess, you take smaller pullbacks/retracements if there is a strong trend and widther targets(?) and you wait for larger retracements and smaller targets(?) if trend is not so strong....?

Defining trendstrength is a challenge, i guess further you look at different timeframes and math up the trends, the 1 million $ question is of course, how define a trend: Slope, angle of linearregression, just the pricediff in a given time... me i tried some indicator with counting the breakouts over/under standartdeviation leaving a lot of marketnoise outside. I can not expect a complete answer, but may be it`s possible to give some more little hints....

regards, Michael

:confused:
More...

The most important thing is to be able to mesure the strenght of the trend. I have theoretically 8 different outcomes. For each outcome i know what to do.
Defining the strenght of the trend has a very high accuracy; i mean that once the strenght of the trend is defined, your trade has over 90% changes of being profitable. Being profitable means ending with an amount above 0$ net.
The subsystems are only used to optimise the return. It is the fine tuning of the system. It also gives constant information about the evolution of the trade. It almost always warns me if the scenario that should be fulfilled is still OK. This makes it possible in most cases to exit a bad trade with small, or even without, losses.
I don't care abouit pullbacks, support/resistance, lineair regression or slopes. I often see that the signals are generated at a pullback or support/resistance, that's purely a coincidence, but a logical one. I try to enter at the best moment, so it is always where pullbacks happen or where support/resistance is. Because that's (afterwards) always the best entrypoint. Only problem is that you have to filter out the noise and keep the essence, and see the entry in advance, not in hindsight.
 
Quote from porgie:

also i would like to know how many percentage wise succeed in this business......short term emini trading.......5 hours per day seems like a long time to stare at the computer monitor........
More...

Porgie,
in any discipline it is impossible to be succesful if you don't want to go for it at 100%.

Looking 5 hours a day at my screen results in a profit that exceeds the monthly salary of the average american. So 5 hours looking at a screen are less or equal to 1 month of working. I prefer watching my screen instead of working a full month for less money. I do leave my screen alone from time to time (sanitary stops, watching the news, having a cup of coffee).
I'm addicted to trading (the only way to overcome the first steps from losing money to becoming profitable), i have tried to make money in various environments ( working for a boss, being an independant bussinesman, being unemployed...) and my conclusion was that there is no better way to improve the quality of my live than by trading.
 
@porgie,
i think you have to be weird/addicted with trading, unless you will never see constant success, most are stopping before reaching a high enough learningcurve. I think Linda Raschke meant ~ 3 years with good education, i think 4-8 years are meeting reality more. I heard that 97% of IB customers are losing money, so it`s a hard challenge and most(real) jobs are far more easy to learn...(brainsurgery, businessman ..;-)

@spike
me seems to be a stubborn questioner...
well, let`s say you have an uptrend with strength 6, you say you don`t wait for a pullback(to be confirmed..), how do you enter the market? The next conclusion would be you did some stats that a trend with strength 6 here, does in average some retracements of xyz% or points or standartdeviations, where would be a good place to enter regardless any other factors. Do you also look on time? How long did this retracement from the trend already last? In strong trends continuation follows in timely faster manner...And hopefully the last one...Does this mean you enter the market with limitorders at a pricelevel you extract from trendstrength or do you use some confirmation like buy at high + 1 tick stop, to have (some little) confirmation of turning back up?

Uuuh, I am a really curious guy...
 
About the learning curve: lost money the first 5 years, break even or small profits the next 5 years, really profitable after 10 years only. My learning curve was fairly long, probably I was not as smart as the average trader. The final results did compensate all.
But was is the definition of bigger success? Making 10% a month after 5 years or making 100% a month after 10 years? The length of the learning curve has to be linked to the performance that is reached, otherwise the number of years don’t say anything.

How I enter the market?
Once the trend is defined, the correct subsystem takes over. It analyses where we are in the scenario that should unfold and decides how to enter the market, sometimes I have to enter immediately, sometimes I have to wait. I always use market orders. The scenario can also give a reliable prediction how long we have to stay in a trade, on condition that the scenario unfolds as it should.
 
Quote from spike500:

If you want to become really successful in intraday trading, you have to find a system that takes the big moves.
Friday you had to go short and stay short till the close. As long as you cannot see these kind of trades in your system you have a
problem.

Friday was one of the easiest and biggest trades you could make.
I had to go short at 1321 and stay in till 1303. These kind of trades unfortunately don't happen very often, but if you cannot see them your system is not good enough. This trade should have been visible, even with your eyes closed.
More...

=================
Yes most of FRI was downtrend with weekly trend, until1303 area;
longer term uptrend showed up about 1303-1302 area,
:cool:
 
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