ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

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short here at 1305.25 We've got a second lower peak on the RSI here --granted not in OB territory. Also lower histogram peak. Close eye here for upside. Stop at 1308.00

Stopped at 1308.00 2.75 pts loss.
 
This region is not a nice one to open new positions, we are already 1.2 average dayrange under the high (YM, don`t know the ES), under normal conditions, this means heavy oversold, this meets always the risk of a shortsqueeze(but i think not today), but we a have friday, Big traders go in weekend earlier, possible chop till end..
 
I really think to observed some heavy distribution the last 2 weeks, the big players are going short, meets not the intraday trading stuff, but i guess short can be the better direction next week too..
 
I floundered this afternoon as a true reversal and follow up trend was not found. There were however numerous opportunities for 1 and 2 pt gains, which I was not looking for and that cost me a bit. Didn't give back all the gains from this morning. Short here still looks like the way to go. Still plenty of time for the 1300 test
 
The only thing that bothers me today is not the small afternoon whipsaws, but being away from the screen when the 1310.75 downside reversal presented itself and also I skipped the signal after I was stopped out. The signal was for a short at 1307.00. (I wanted to end today in the black after getting stopped out).

Addendum-- hourly only analysis would have been profitable, but would not have had me short until 1312.00 Having the time to trade the 3 minute chart allowed me to catch the beginning of the move today.
 
I can`t really describe all the signs to define a coming trendday, but i did lost much $$$ earlier by figthing trenddays, i have an eye for it now, this is a 100% trendday closing LOD or not far from it...and I know of Reversaltraders losing the money of 1-3 months by adding to positions in trenddays..
 
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